IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v36y2011i12p6981-6992.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A hybrid fuzzy mathematical programming-design of experiment framework for improvement of energy consumption estimation with small data sets and uncertainty: The cases of USA, Canada, Singapore, Pakistan and Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Azadeh, A.
  • Saberi, M.
  • Asadzadeh, S.M.
  • Khakestani, M.

Abstract

Utilization of small data sets for energy consumption forecasting is a major problem because it could create large noise. This study presents a hybrid framework for improvement of energy consumption estimation with small data sets. The framework is based on fuzzy regression, conventional regression and design of experiment (DOE). The hybrid framework uses analysis of variance (ANOVA) and minimum absolute percentage error (MAPE) to select between fuzzy and conventional regressions. The significance of the proposed framework is three fold. First, it is flexible and identifies the best model based on the results of ANOVA and MAPE. Second, the framework may identify conventional regression as the best model for future energy consumption forecasting because of its dynamic structure, whereas in the case of uncertainty and ambiguity, previous studies assume that fuzzy regression provides better solutions and estimation. Third, it is ideal candidate for short data sets. To show the applicability of the hybrid framework, the data for energy consumption in Canada, United States, Singapore, Pakistan and Iran from 1995 to 2005 are considered and tested. This is the first study which introduces a hybrid fuzzy regression-design of experiment for improvement of energy consumption estimation and forecasting with relatively small data sets.

Suggested Citation

  • Azadeh, A. & Saberi, M. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Khakestani, M., 2011. "A hybrid fuzzy mathematical programming-design of experiment framework for improvement of energy consumption estimation with small data sets and uncertainty: The cases of USA, Canada, Singapore, Pakis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 6981-6992.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:12:p:6981-6992
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2011.07.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211004646
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2011.07.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cinar, Didem & Kayakutlu, Gulgun & Daim, Tugrul, 2010. "Development of future energy scenarios with intelligent algorithms: Case of hydro in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1724-1729.
    2. Zhang, Ming & Mu, Hailin & Li, Gang & Ning, Yadong, 2009. "Forecasting the transport energy demand based on PLSR method in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1396-1400.
    3. Afshar, K. & Bigdeli, N., 2011. "Data analysis and short term load forecasting in Iran electricity market using singular spectral analysis (SSA)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2620-2627.
    4. Wang, Hsiao-Fan & Tsaur, Ruey-Chyn, 2000. "Resolution of fuzzy regression model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 637-650, November.
    5. Tanaka, Hideo & Hayashi, Isao & Watada, Junzo, 1989. "Possibilistic linear regression analysis for fuzzy data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 389-396, June.
    6. Pao, H.T., 2009. "Forecasting energy consumption in Taiwan using hybrid nonlinear models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1438-1446.
    7. Kim, Kwang Jae & Moskowitz, Herbert & Koksalan, Murat, 1996. "Fuzzy versus statistical linear regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 417-434, July.
    8. Azadeh, A. & Saberi, M. & Seraj, O., 2010. "An integrated fuzzy regression algorithm for energy consumption estimation with non-stationary data: A case study of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 2351-2366.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Fu, D.Z., 2013. "Modeling for planning municipal electric power systems associated with air pollution control – A case study of Beijing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 168-186.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    2. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Wu, Hsien-Chung, 2003. "Fuzzy estimates of regression parameters in linear regression models for imprecise input and output data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 203-217, February.
    4. Azadeh, A. & Saberi, M. & Seraj, O., 2010. "An integrated fuzzy regression algorithm for energy consumption estimation with non-stationary data: A case study of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 2351-2366.
    5. Assareh, E. & Behrang, M.A. & Assari, M.R. & Ghanbarzadeh, A., 2010. "Application of PSO (particle swarm optimization) and GA (genetic algorithm) techniques on demand estimation of oil in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5223-5229.
    6. Azadeh, A. & Khakestani, M. & Saberi, M., 2009. "A flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption estimation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5567-5579, December.
    7. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    8. Ali Azadeh & Mohammad Sheikhalishahi & Ali Boostani, 2014. "A Flexible Neuro-Fuzzy Approach for Improvement of Seasonal Housing Price Estimation in Uncertain and Non-Linear Environments," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 567-582, December.
    9. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    10. Askarzadeh, Alireza, 2014. "Comparison of particle swarm optimization and other metaheuristics on electricity demand estimation: A case study of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 484-491.
    11. Uzlu, Ergun & Akpınar, Adem & Özturk, Hasan Tahsin & Nacar, Sinan & Kankal, Murat, 2014. "Estimates of hydroelectric generation using neural networks with the artificial bee colony algorithm for Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 638-647.
    12. An, Ning & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Shang, Duo & Zhao, Erdong, 2013. "Using multi-output feedforward neural network with empirical mode decomposition based signal filtering for electricity demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 279-288.
    13. Günay, M. Erdem, 2016. "Forecasting annual gross electricity demand by artificial neural networks using predicted values of socio-economic indicators and climatic conditions: Case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 92-101.
    14. Cinar, Didem & Kayakutlu, Gulgun & Daim, Tugrul, 2010. "Development of future energy scenarios with intelligent algorithms: Case of hydro in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1724-1729.
    15. Behrang, M.A. & Assareh, E. & Ghalambaz, M. & Assari, M.R. & Noghrehabadi, A.R., 2011. "Forecasting future oil demand in Iran using GSA (Gravitational Search Algorithm)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5649-5654.
    16. Yu, Shi-wei & Zhu, Ke-jun, 2012. "A hybrid procedure for energy demand forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 396-404.
    17. Zhou, Jian & Shen, Yixuan & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Zhang, Hui, 2021. "The range of uncertainty on the property market pricing: The case of the city of Shanghai," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    18. Zahedi, Gholamreza & Azizi, Saeed & Bahadori, Alireza & Elkamel, Ali & Wan Alwi, Sharifah R., 2013. "Electricity demand estimation using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy network: A case study from the Ontario province – Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 323-328.
    19. Zhang, Wen Yu & Hong, Wei-Chiang & Dong, Yucheng & Tsai, Gary & Sung, Jing-Tian & Fan, Guo-feng, 2012. "Application of SVR with chaotic GASA algorithm in cyclic electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 850-858.
    20. Wang, Shuai & Yu, Lean & Tang, Ling & Wang, Shouyang, 2011. "A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6542-6554.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:12:p:6981-6992. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.