IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v308y2024ics0360544224025611.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards carbon neutrality: The decoupling effect of industrial restructuring and non-fossil energy substitution on carbon emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Zhijiu
  • Duan, Jiani
  • Fan, Niuniu

Abstract

China's carbon neutrality target requires early carbon decoupling of economic growth. Utilizing the input-output and programming technique, we investigate the carbon mitigation potential of industrial restructuring along with the substitution of non-fossil energy for electric production. Given the constraints of manufacturing stabilization and employment volatility magnitude, this paper finds that industrial restructuring can mitigate carbon emissions by 7.47 %. Besides, non-fossil energy substitution in electric production can strengthen the inhibiting effect, reducing carbon emissions from 7.47 % (currently about 31.5 % for non-fossil power generation) to 28.99 % (about 80 % in the future). This paper also simulates several scenarios for growth rates and estimates the prospective carbon reduction for the fourteenth Five-Year Plan in China. We indicate that the rising share of non-fossil energy is the linchpin to reducing energy-related carbon emissions, which can achieve absolute decoupling if the share of non-fossil energy in power generation reaches 67.1 % under different growth scenarios. This paper argues that carbon-based performance indicators, e.g., carbon intensity and carbon emissions, are more appropriate for local bureaucrats than energy-based ones. We provide valuable implications for the carbon decoupling path.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Zhijiu & Duan, Jiani & Fan, Niuniu, 2024. "Towards carbon neutrality: The decoupling effect of industrial restructuring and non-fossil energy substitution on carbon emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:308:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224025611
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.132787
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224025611
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.132787?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Su, Bin & Huang, H.C. & Ang, B.W. & Zhou, P., 2010. "Input-output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade: The effects of sector aggregation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 166-175, January.
    2. Yu, Shiwei & Zheng, Shuhong & Li, Xia & Li, Longxi, 2018. "China can peak its energy-related carbon emissions before 2025: Evidence from industry restructuring," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 91-107.
    3. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data of three sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 772-787.
    4. Liu, Li-Jing & Liu, Lan-Cui & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2023. "Restructuring investment to promote a win–win situation for both the economy and the environment in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    5. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    6. John E. T. Bistline & David T. Young, 2022. "The role of natural gas in reaching net-zero emissions in the electric sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Wang, Lianghu & Shao, Jun, 2023. "Digital economy, entrepreneurship and energy efficiency," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Julianne DeAngelo & Inês Azevedo & John Bistline & Leon Clarke & Gunnar Luderer & Edward Byers & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Energy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Diakoulaki, D. & Mandaraka, M., 2007. "Decomposition analysis for assessing the progress in decoupling industrial growth from CO2 emissions in the EU manufacturing sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 636-664, July.
    10. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wang, Kefan & Chevallier, Julien & Wang, Ping & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "Can China achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 209-216.
    11. Duan, Hongbo & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-60.
    12. Aljoša Slameršak & Giorgos Kallis & Daniel W. O’Neill, 2022. "Energy requirements and carbon emissions for a low-carbon energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Gouveia, João Pedro & Seixas, Júlia, 2019. "Electricity, the silver bullet for the deep decarbonisation of the energy system? Cost-effectiveness analysis for Portugal," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 292-303.
    14. Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Liu, Jian & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Green growth: The economic impacts of large-scale renewable energy development in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 435-449.
    15. Tang, Lei & Guo, Jue & Zhao, Boyang & Wang, Xiuli & Shao, Chengcheng & Wang, Yifei, 2021. "Power generation mix evolution based on rolling horizon optimal approach: A system dynamics analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    16. Su, Bin & Ang, B.W., 2010. "Input-output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade: The effects of spatial aggregation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 10-18, November.
    17. Zhifu Mi & Jing Meng & Dabo Guan & Yuli Shan & Malin Song & Yi-Ming Wei & Zhu Liu & Klaus Hubacek, 2017. "Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Ge Li & Da Gao & Yi Li, 2023. "Impacts of Market‐based Environmental Regulation on Green Total Factor Energy Efficiency in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(3), pages 92-114, May.
    19. Arnold, Jens & Scarpetta, Stefano & Nicoletti, Giuseppe, 2011. "Regulation, resource reallocation and productivity growth," EIB Papers 4/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    20. Duan, Hongbo & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Cheng, Zhonghua & Li, Lianshui & Liu, Jun, 2018. "Industrial structure, technical progress and carbon intensity in China's provinces," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2935-2946.
    22. Gao, Da & Li, Ge & Yu, Jiyu, 2022. "Does digitization improve green total factor energy efficiency? Evidence from Chinese 213 cities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    23. Su, Bin & Ang, B.W., 2012. "Structural decomposition analysis applied to energy and emissions: Some methodological developments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 177-188.
    24. Wu, Ya & Zhu, Qianwen & Zhu, Bangzhu, 2018. "Comparisons of decoupling trends of global economic growth and energy consumption between developed and developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 30-38.
    25. Shi, Daqian & Yang, Zhijiu & Ji, Hongkun, 2022. "Energy target-based responsibility system and corporate energy efficiency: Evidence from the eleventh Five Year Plan in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    26. Zhang, Shufan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & You, Kairui, 2023. "Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    27. Liddle, Brantley & Sadorsky, Perry, 2017. "How much does increasing non-fossil fuels in electricity generation reduce carbon dioxide emissions?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 212-221.
    28. Yan, Ran & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Xiang, Xiwang & Mao, Chao, 2023. "Towards COP27: Decarbonization patterns of residential building in China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    29. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Bing Wang & Jing Meng & Zhu Liu & Yuli Shan & Jingru Liu & Dabo Guan, 2017. "Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 103, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    30. Wang, Juan & Hu, Mingming & Rodrigues, João F.D., 2018. "The evolution and driving forces of industrial aggregate energy intensity in China: An extended decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2195-2206.
    31. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Aghahosseini, Arman & Gulagi, Ashish & Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Child, Michael & Caldera, Upeksha & Sadovskaia, Kristina & Farfan, Javier & De Souza Noel Simas Barbos, 2021. "Low-cost renewable electricity as the key driver of the global energy transition towards sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng, Jiali & Mi, Zhifu & Coffman, D'Maris & Milcheva, Stanimira & Shan, Yuli & Guan, Dabo & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Regional development and carbon emissions in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-36.
    2. Boya Zhang & Shukuan Bai & Yadong Ning & Tao Ding & Yan Zhang, 2020. "Emission Embodied in International Trade and Its Responsibility from the Perspective of Global Value Chain: Progress, Trends, and Challenges," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-26, April.
    3. Meng, Guanfei & Liu, Hongxun & Li, Jianglong & Sun, Chuanwang, 2022. "Determination of driving forces for China's energy consumption and regional disparities using a hybrid structural decomposition analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    4. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Using an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index approach to assess the roles of economic factors on industrial CO2 emissions of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 101-114.
    5. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Research on the peak of CO2 emissions in the developing world: Current progress and future prospect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 186-203.
    6. Duan, Yuwan & Jiang, Xuemei, 2017. "Temporal Change of China's Pollution Terms of Trade and its Determinants," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 31-44.
    7. Zhou, Xiaoyong & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Qunwei & Su, Bin, 2020. "Who shapes China's carbon intensity and how? A demand-side decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Wang, Zhen & Yan, Haoben & Gao, Xue & Liang, Qiaomei & Mi, Zhifu & Liu, Lancui, 2024. "Have consumption-based CO2 emissions in developed countries peaked?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. Zhang, Xiaomei & Su, Bin & Yang, Jun & Cong, Jianhui, 2022. "Analysis of Shanxi Province's energy consumption and intensity using input-output framework (2002–2017)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    10. Wang, Juan & Hu, Mingming & Tukker, Arnold & Rodrigues, João F.D., 2019. "The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China's CO2 emissions and emission goals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 512-523.
    11. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Investigating the drivers of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s industrial sector: From regional and provincial perspectives," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 136-147.
    12. Zhu, Bangzhu & Su, Bin & Li, Yingzhu & Ng, Tsan Sheng, 2020. "Embodied energy and intensity in China’s (normal and processing) exports and their driving forces, 2005-2015," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    13. Bu, Yan & Wang, Erda & Möst, Dominik & Lieberwirth, Martin, 2022. "How population migration affects carbon emissions in China: Factual and counterfactual scenario analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    14. Yulei Xie & Ling Ji & Beibei Zhang & Gordon Huang, 2018. "Evolution of the Scientific Literature on Input–Output Analysis: A Bibliometric Analysis of 1990–2017," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, September.
    15. Li, Jia Shuo & Zhou, H.W. & Meng, Jing & Yang, Q. & Chen, B. & Zhang, Y.Y., 2018. "Carbon emissions and their drivers for a typical urban economy from multiple perspectives: A case analysis for Beijing city," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 1076-1086.
    16. Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Xiaoyong & Xu, Qing & Wu, Fei & Wang, Qunwei & Zha, Donglan, 2018. "Regional embodied carbon emissions and their transfer characteristics in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 180-193.
    17. Su, Bin & Ang, B.W., 2014. "Input–output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade: A multi-region model for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 377-384.
    18. Rui Huang & Arunima Malik & Manfred Lenzen & Yutong Jin & Yafei Wang & Futu Faturay & Zhiyi Zhu, 2022. "Supply-chain impacts of Sichuan earthquake: a case study using disaster input–output analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2227-2248, February.
    19. Gasim, Anwar A., 2015. "The embodied energy in trade: What role does specialization play?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 186-197.
    20. Das, Aparna & Paul, Saikat Kumar, 2014. "CO2 emissions from household consumption in India between 1993–94 and 2006–07: A decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 90-105.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:308:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224025611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.