Assessing and analysing energy system balance: A decision tree approach

Due to the impacts of climate change, the global energy system must undergo a green transformation. However, this transition process may entail both positive and negative impacts. Therefore, governments must formulate balanced energy policies to establish a secure, accessible, affordable, and environmentally sustainable energy system. To assist decision-makers in evaluating the status of energy systems and formulating rational energy policies to address the complex and dynamic challenges, this study focuses on proposing a method to assess and analyze the equilibrium of a nation's energy system. To achieve these objectives, we propose the Energy Balance Index as a comprehensive method for assessing the equilibrium of a country's energy system. Subsequently, we employ a decision tree-based model to analyze the impact of different factors on the Energy Balance Index. The findings reveal that environmental sustainability holds the most significant influence, followed by energy equity, while energy security has a minor impact. Moreover, the relative influence of these factors varies over time, with energy equity exerting a greater influence prior to 2015, and environmental sustainability emerging as the foremost determinant since then. Through development status analysis of China, this study provides valuable references and recommendations for decision-makers in designing energy policies.