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Energy demand in the fifteen European Union countries by 2010 —

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  • Sun, J.W

Abstract

This paper develops a forecasting model based on the complete decomposition method. The forecasting model allows the trend effect, the rebound effect and dematerialization/materialization to be estimated. To demonstrate the model, a case analysis of the probable energy demand in the 15 European Union (EU) countries up to 2010 has been made. The results show that the aggregate energy demand in the 15 EU countries by the end of 2010 will have increased from 258 to 426 Mtoe compared to the 1997 level, and dematerialisation will have increased from 73 to 225 Mtoe.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, J.W, 2001. "Energy demand in the fifteen European Union countries by 2010 —," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 549-560.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:26:y:2001:i:6:p:549-560
    DOI: 10.1016/S0360-5442(01)00021-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ang, B.W & Zhang, F.Q, 1999. "Inter-regional comparisons of energy-related CO2 emissions using the decomposition technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 297-305.
    2. Sun, J. W., 1998. "Changes in energy consumption and energy intensity: A complete decomposition model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 85-100, February.
    3. Berkhout, Peter H. G. & Muskens, Jos C. & W. Velthuijsen, Jan, 2000. "Defining the rebound effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 425-432, June.
    4. Sun, J.W., 2000. "An analysis of the difference in CO2 emission intensity between Finland and Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1139-1146.
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    1. Robaina Alves, Margarita & Moutinho, Victor, 2013. "Decomposition analysis and Innovative Accounting Approach for energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions intensity over 1996–2009 in Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 775-787.
    2. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    3. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    4. O' Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, P. & Sweeney, John, 2013. "Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 385-397.
    5. Margarida R. Alves & Victor Moutinho, 2013. "Decomposition analysis for energy-related CO2 emissions intensity over 1996-2009 in Portuguese Industrial Sectors," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2013_10, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    6. Ziolkowska, Jadwiga R. & Ziolkowski, Bozydar, 2011. "Product generational dematerialization indicator: A case of crude oil in the global economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 5925-5934.
    7. Ekonomou, L., 2010. "Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 512-517.

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