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Planning level sizing of heat pumps and hot water tanks incorporating model predictive control and future electricity tariffs

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  • Lyden, Andrew
  • Tuohy, Paul Gerard

Abstract

Heat pumps and hot water tanks in local energy systems require sizing to increase on-site renewables self-consumption; decrease costs through variable electricity pricing; and utilise low-cost wind power. While detailed tools can capture these mechanisms, planning-level tools lack functionality and miss these benefits. In this paper an open-source planning-level modelling tool, PyLESA, is presented and applied to a sizing study to demonstrate the capturing of these benefits at the planning-level. Specific aims of the study were to investigate: (i) model predictive control vs. fixed order control, (ii) existing and future wind-influenced electricity tariffs, and (iii) optimal cost size combinations of heat pump and hot water tank. The lowest levelized cost of heat for the existing tariffs was for a time-of-use tariff, 750 kW heat pump and 500 m3 hot water tank combination. For the future wind-influenced tariff a 1000 kW heat pump and 2000 m3 hot water tank was cost optimal and showed model predictive control benefits over fixed order control with levelized heat costs reducing 41 %, and heat demand met by renewables increasing 18 %. These results demonstrate PyLESA as capable of capturing flexibility benefits at the planning stage of design and quantify the advantage of combining flexible tariffs with model predictive control.

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  • Lyden, Andrew & Tuohy, Paul Gerard, 2022. "Planning level sizing of heat pumps and hot water tanks incorporating model predictive control and future electricity tariffs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:238:y:2022:i:pa:s0360544221019794
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121731
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    5. Beccali, Marco & Bonomolo, Marina & Martorana, Francesca & Catrini, Pietro & Buscemi, Alessandro, 2022. "Electrical hybrid heat pumps assisted by natural gas boilers: a review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    6. Siddique, Muhammad Bilal & Nielsen, Per Sieverts & Rosendal, Mathias Berg & Jensen, Ida Græsted & Keles, Dogan, 2023. "Impacts of earlier natural gas phase-out & heat-saving policies on district heating and the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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