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Uncertainty analysis of heat-exchanger thermal designs using the Monte Carlo simulation technique

Author

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  • Badar, M.Affan
  • Zubair, Syed M.
  • Sheikh, Anwar K.

Abstract

The Monte Carlo simulation technique for determining uncertainties of the thermal parameters needed in designing heat exchangers is discussed. Parameters such as the outside diameter Do, thickness t and thermal conductivity k are assumed to have Gaussian distributions, while the heat-transfer coefficients hi, and ho are considered to follow normal, log-normal and Weibull forms of distribution. An illustrative example is presented. The overall heat-transfer coefficient U obtained from the simulation is found to have a distribution that is well approximated by the Weibull model. Using the Weibull distribution of U, the additional percentage area is calculated for 80 and 99% confidence levels (CLs). The proposed approach of design analysis incorporates realistic risks associated with uncertainties of the parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Badar, M.Affan & Zubair, Syed M. & Sheikh, Anwar K., 1993. "Uncertainty analysis of heat-exchanger thermal designs using the Monte Carlo simulation technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 18(8), pages 859-866.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:18:y:1993:i:8:p:859-866
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(93)90063-J
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    Cited by:

    1. Cuneo, A. & Zaccaria, V. & Tucker, D. & Traverso, A., 2017. "Probabilistic analysis of a fuel cell degradation model for solid oxide fuel cell and gas turbine hybrid systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2277-2287.
    2. Sheikh, Anwar K & Zubair, Syed M & Younas, Muhammad & Budair, M.O, 2000. "A risk based heat exchanger analysis subject to fouling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 445-461.
    3. Lal, Nathan S. & Atkins, Martin J. & Walmsley, Timothy G. & Walmsley, Michael R.W. & Neale, James R., 2019. "Insightful heat exchanger network retrofit design using Monte Carlo simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1129-1141.

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