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Managing atmospheric CO2: Policy implications

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  • Harvey, L.D.Danny

Abstract

In a previous study, the impact on atmospheric CO2 concentration and globally-averaged climatic change of various CO2 emission-reduction strategies was estimated using a coupled climate-carbon cycle model. Scenarios in which fossil-fuel CO2 emissions increased by 0–1% yr−1 until 2000–2020, followed by a gradual transition to a rate of emission decrease of 1–2% yr−1, were considered and found to result in peak atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 400–500 ppmv, depending on rates of deforestation and the effect of various climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, it is shown that a rate of decrease of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions of 1–2% yr−1 is consistent with reasonable assumptions concerning global population growth, feasible future per capita primary energy demand in the industrialized and developing countries, and attainable rates of installation of non-fossil fuel energy supply. It is thus concluded that stabilizing atmospheric CO2 at a concentration of 400–500 ppmv is a credible option. Attaining this target requires both greatly improved efficiency of energy use and a redirection of energy policy toward non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Harvey, L.D.Danny, 1990. "Managing atmospheric CO2: Policy implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 91-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:15:y:1990:i:2:p:91-104
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(90)90046-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
    2. Agudelo, Andrés & Valero, Antonio & Usón, Sergio, 2013. "The fossil trace of CO2 emissions in multi-fuel energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 236-246.
    3. Azadeh, A. & Babazadeh, R. & Asadzadeh, S.M., 2013. "Optimum estimation and forecasting of renewable energy consumption by artificial neural networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 605-612.

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