IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v159y2018icp294-301.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel approach for estimating residential space heating demand

Author

Listed:
  • Berger, Matthias
  • Worlitschek, Jörg

Abstract

Energy system models on country level usually contain multiple energy carriers at different granularity. While data is comparably rich in terms of temporal and spatial resolution for the electricity part, much less is known for heat. Especially the true demand for heat as a function of usage and time is difficult to obtain. In many cases, energy consumption data (fuel oil, natural gas, district heating etc.) is taken as approximation for the final energy end-use of heat. Different heat distribution technologies bring their own bias on temperature levels and heating hours, like with ground floor heating vs. radiator. Therefore, historic consumption data is not an appropriate base for modelling of energy systems with long prospect. The present research work proposes a novel top-down methodology for generating aggregated load curves on heat demand, with a focus on residential space heating. Maps of population density distribution combined with norm temperature profiles and the definition of heating degree days provides a tempo-spatial map of heating demand. The knowledge of total residential space heating demand is used to identify the aggregated demand curve, suitable for energy system modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Berger, Matthias & Worlitschek, Jörg, 2018. "A novel approach for estimating residential space heating demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 294-301.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:159:y:2018:i:c:p:294-301
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544218312039
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.138?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oke,T. R. & Mills,G. & Christen,A. & Voogt,J. A., 2017. "Urban Climates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521849500, April.
    2. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    3. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
    4. Oke,T. R. & Mills,G. & Christen,A. & Voogt,J. A., 2017. "Urban Climates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107429536, September.
    5. Mu, Yunfei & Wu, Jianzhong & Jenkins, Nick & Jia, Hongjie & Wang, Chengshan, 2014. "A Spatial–Temporal model for grid impact analysis of plug-in electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 456-465.
    6. Boßmann, T. & Staffell, I., 2015. "The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1317-1333.
    7. Heymans, Catherine & Walker, Sean B. & Young, Steven B. & Fowler, Michael, 2014. "Economic analysis of second use electric vehicle batteries for residential energy storage and load-levelling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 22-30.
    8. Hawkes, A.D. & Leach, M.A., 2007. "Cost-effective operating strategy for residential micro-combined heat and power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 711-723.
    9. Fonseca, Jimeno A. & Schlueter, Arno, 2015. "Integrated model for characterization of spatiotemporal building energy consumption patterns in neighborhoods and city districts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 247-265.
    10. Abdon, Andreas & Zhang, Xiaojin & Parra, David & Patel, Martin K. & Bauer, Christian & Worlitschek, Jörg, 2017. "Techno-economic and environmental assessment of stationary electricity storage technologies for different time scales," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1173-1187.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sachs, Julia & Moya, Diego & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "Clustered spatially and temporally resolved global heat and cooling energy demand in the residential sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 48-62.
    2. Li, Xiang & Lepour, Dorsan & Heymann, Fabian & Maréchal, François, 2023. "Electrification and digitalization effects on sectoral energy demand and consumption: A prospective study towards 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    3. Carson Kinney & Alireza Dehghani-Sanij & SeyedBijan Mahbaz & Maurice B. Dusseault & Jatin S. Nathwani & Roydon A. Fraser, 2019. "Geothermal Energy for Sustainable Food Production in Canada’s Remote Northern Communities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-25, October.
    4. Nishimwe, Antoinette Marie Reine & Reiter, Sigrid, 2021. "Building heat consumption and heat demand assessment, characterization, and mapping on a regional scale: A case study of the Walloon building stock in Belgium," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Michael O. Dioha & Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi, 2019. "Investigating the Impacts of Energy Access Scenarios in the Nigerian Household Sector by 2030," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Liu, F. & Tait, S. & Schellart, A. & Mayfield, M. & Boxall, J., 2020. "Reducing carbon emissions by integrating urban water systems and renewable energy sources at a community scale," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Chen, Si-Yuan & Xue, Meng-Tian & Wang, Zhao-Hua & Tian, Xin & Zhang, Bin, 2022. "Exploring pathways of phasing out clean heating subsidies for rural residential buildings in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Olfati, Mohammad & Bahiraei, Mehdi & Veysi, Farzad, 2019. "A novel modification on preheating process of natural gas in pressure reduction stations to improve energy consumption, exergy destruction and CO2 emission: Preheating based on real demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 598-609.
    9. Gao, Datong & Zhao, Bin & Kwan, Trevor Hocksun & Hao, Yong & Pei, Gang, 2022. "The spatial and temporal mismatch phenomenon in solar space heating applications: status and solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    10. Abdulraheem Salaymeh & Irene Peters & Stefan Holler, 2024. "Factoring Building Refurbishment and Climatic Effect into Heat Demand Assessments and Forecasts: Case Study and Open Datasets for Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-21, January.
    11. Knittel, Tamara & Palmer-Wilson, Kevin & McPherson, Madeleine & Wild, Peter & Rowe, Andrew, 2024. "Heating electrification in cold climates: Invest in grid flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    12. Eggimann, Sven & Usher, Will & Eyre, Nick & Hall, Jim W., 2020. "How weather affects energy demand variability in the transition towards sustainable heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    13. Mutschler, Robin & Rüdisüli, Martin & Heer, Philipp & Eggimann, Sven, 2021. "Benchmarking cooling and heating energy demands considering climate change, population growth and cooling device uptake," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    14. Kai Xin & Jingyuan Zhao & Tianhui Wang & Weijun Gao, 2022. "Supporting Design to Develop Rural Revitalization through Investigating Village Microclimate Environments: A Case Study of Typical Villages in Northwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-20, July.
    15. Lee, Zachary E. & Max Zhang, K., 2022. "Unintended consequences of smart thermostats in the transition to electrified heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    16. Dioha, Michael O. & Kumar, Atul, 2020. "Exploring sustainable energy transitions in sub-Saharan Africa residential sector: The case of Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    17. Saeid Charani Shandiz & Alice Denarie & Gabriele Cassetti & Marco Calderoni & Antoine Frein & Mario Motta, 2019. "A Simplified Methodology for Existing Tertiary Buildings’ Cooling Energy Need Estimation at District Level: A Feasibility Study of a District Cooling System in Marrakech," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, March.
    18. Meha, Drilon & Dragusha, Bedri & Thakur, Jagruti & Novosel, Tomislav & Duić, Neven, 2021. "A novel spatial based approach for estimation of space heating demand saving potential and CO2 emissions reduction in urban areas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    19. Gao, Datong & Kwan, Trevor Hocksun & Hu, Maobin & Pei, Gang, 2022. "The energy, exergy, and techno-economic analysis of a solar seasonal residual energy utilization system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    20. Novosel, T. & Pukšec, T. & Duić, N. & Domac, J., 2020. "Heat demand mapping and district heating assessment in data-pour areas," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    21. Muhammad Faizan Tahir & Haoyong Chen & Muhammad Sufyan Javed & Irfan Jameel & Asad Khan & Saifullah Adnan, 2019. "Integration of Different Individual Heating Scenarios and Energy Storages into Hybrid Energy System Model of China for 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-20, May.
    22. Besagni, Giorgio & Borgarello, Marco & Premoli Vilà, Lidia & Najafi, Behzad & Rinaldi, Fabio, 2020. "MOIRAE – bottom-up MOdel to compute the energy consumption of the Italian REsidential sector: Model design, validation and evaluation of electrification pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    23. Felix Schläpfer, 2021. "Inadequate Standards in the Valuation of Public Goods and Ecosystem Services: Why Economists, Environmental Scientists and Policymakers Should Care," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, January.
    24. Berger, Matthias & Schroeteler, Benjamin & Sperle, Helene & Püntener, Patrizia & Felder, Tom & Worlitschek, Jörg, 2022. "Assessment of residential scale renewable heating solutions with thermal energy storages," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    25. Meha, Drilon & Novosel, Tomislav & Duić, Neven, 2020. "Bottom-up and top-down heat demand mapping methods for small municipalities, case Gllogoc," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    2. Kuang, Yanqing & Chen, Yang & Hu, Mengqi & Yang, Dong, 2017. "Influence analysis of driver behavior and building category on economic performance of electric vehicle to grid and building integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 427-437.
    3. Kumar, Rajesh & Agarwala, Arun, 2016. "Renewable energy technology diffusion model for techno-economics feasibility," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1515-1524.
    4. Savvidis, Georgios & Siala, Kais & Weissbart, Christoph & Schmidt, Lukas & Borggrefe, Frieder & Kumar, Subhash & Pittel, Karen & Madlener, Reinhard & Hufendiek, Kai, 2019. "The gap between energy policy challenges and model capabilities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 503-520.
    5. Chanthawong, Anuman & Dhakal, Shobhakar & Jongwanich, Juthathip, 2016. "Supply and demand of biofuels in the fuel market of Thailand: Two stage least square and three least square approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 431-443.
    6. Yoro, Kelvin O. & Daramola, Michael O. & Sekoai, Patrick T. & Wilson, Uwemedimo N. & Eterigho-Ikelegbe, Orevaoghene, 2021. "Update on current approaches, challenges, and prospects of modeling and simulation in renewable and sustainable energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Di Leo, Senatro & Caramuta, Pietro & Curci, Paola & Cosmi, Carmelina, 2020. "Regression analysis for energy demand projection: An application to TIMES-Basilicata and TIMES-Italy energy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Chang, Miguel & Thellufsen, Jakob Zink & Zakeri, Behnam & Pickering, Bryn & Pfenninger, Stefan & Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2021. "Trends in tools and approaches for modelling the energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    9. Kialashaki, Arash & Reisel, John R., 2014. "Development and validation of artificial neural network models of the energy demand in the industrial sector of the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 749-760.
    10. Alizadeh, Reza & Lund, Peter D. & Soltanisehat, Leili, 2020. "Outlook on biofuels in future studies: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Tyralis, Hristos & Karakatsanis, Georgios & Tzouka, Katerina & Mamassis, Nikos, 2017. "Exploratory data analysis of the electrical energy demand in the time domain in Greece," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 902-918.
    12. Ghaboulian Zare, Sara & Alipour, Mohammad & Hafezi, Mehdi & Stewart, Rodney A. & Rahman, Anisur, 2022. "Examining wind energy deployment pathways in complex macro-economic and political settings using a fuzzy cognitive map-based method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    13. Klemm, Christian & Vennemann, Peter, 2021. "Modeling and optimization of multi-energy systems in mixed-use districts: A review of existing methods and approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    14. Salisu, Afees A. & Ayinde, Taofeek O., 2016. "Modeling energy demand: Some emerging issues," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1470-1480.
    15. Davis, Matthew & Ahiduzzaman, Md. & Kumar, Amit, 2018. "How will Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions change by 2050? A disaggregated analysis of past and future greenhouse gas emissions using bottom-up energy modelling and Sankey diagrams," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 754-786.
    16. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2017. "Energy model – A tool for preventing energy dysfunction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 95-114.
    17. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    18. Maaouane, Mohamed & Zouggar, Smail & Krajačić, Goran & Zahboune, Hassan, 2021. "Modelling industry energy demand using multiple linear regression analysis based on consumed quantity of goods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    19. De Giorgi, M.G. & Malvoni, M. & Congedo, P.M., 2016. "Comparison of strategies for multi-step ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on hybrid group method of data handling networks and least square support vector machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 360-373.
    20. Adeoye, Omotola & Spataru, Catalina, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting hourly electricity demand in West African countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 311-333.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:159:y:2018:i:c:p:294-301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.