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Structural changes and energy-demand forecasting in industry with applications to two newly industrialized countries

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  • Ang, B.W.

Abstract

The structure of industrial energy use and output are studied, based on the developments of the two fast growing economies of Singapore and Taiwan. Changes in the composition of industry are analyzed, creating a better picture of structural and technical effects on the ratio of energy used to output. Methods to incorporate these two effects in energy-demand forecasting are developed. The energy implications of alternative industrial developments, such as savings that could be realized through placing a higher priority on the developments of less energy-intensive industries, are examined. It is found that structural changes have a major influence on trends in industrial energy use. Structural effects should therefore be identified and taken into consideration, either implicitly or explicitly, in industrial energy-demand forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Ang, B.W., 1987. "Structural changes and energy-demand forecasting in industry with applications to two newly industrialized countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 101-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:12:y:1987:i:2:p:101-111
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(87)90113-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Ang, B. W. & Lee, P. W., 1996. "Decomposition of industrial energy consumption: The energy coefficient approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 129-143, April.
    2. Md. Hasanur Rahman & Alfarunnahar Ruma & Mohammad Nasir Hossain & Rifat Nahrin & Shapan Chandra Majumder, 2021. "Examine the Empirical Relationship between Energy Consumption and Industrialization in Bangladesh: Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 121-129.
    3. C Cocklin & M Harte & S Lonergan, 1989. "Patterns of Change in the Use of Energy in the New Zealand Economy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 21(9), pages 1141-1156, September.
    4. Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Guerassimoff, Gilles & Maïzi, Nadia, 2016. "Analysis of the importance of structural change in non-energy intensive industry for prospective modelling: The French case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 114-124.
    5. Santosh Kumar SAHU & K NARAYANAN, 2010. "Decomposition Of Industrial Energy Consumption In Indian Manufacturing The Energy Intensity Approach," Journal of Advanced Research in Management, ASERS Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 22-38.
    6. Joanne Evans & Massimo Filippini & Lester C. Hunt, 2013. "The contribution of energy efficiency towards meeting CO2 targets," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 8, pages 175-223, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Iniyan, S. & Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2006. "Energy models for commercial energy prediction and substitution of renewable energy sources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2640-2653, November.
    8. Thangjam, Aditya & Jaipuria, Sanjita & Dadabada, Pradeep Kumar, 2023. "Time-Varying approaches for Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting under economic shocks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    9. Liu, Na & Ang, B.W., 2007. "Factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry: Energy intensity versus product mix," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 609-635, July.
    10. Muhammad Shahbaz & Avik Sinha & Andreas Kontoleon, 2022. "Decomposing scale and technique effects of economic growth on energy consumption: Fresh evidence from developing economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1848-1869, April.
    11. Ang, B. W., 1995. "Multilevel decomposition of industrial energy consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 39-51, January.
    12. B.W. Ang & J.F. Skea, 1994. "Structural Change, Sector Disaggregation and Electricity Consumption in uk Industry," Energy & Environment, , vol. 5(1), pages 1-16, March.
    13. L. Suganthi & T.R. Jagadeesan, 1992. "A Modified Model for Prediction of India's Future Energy Requirement," Energy & Environment, , vol. 3(4), pages 371-386, June.
    14. Gardner, Douglas T. & Elkhafif, Mahmoud A. T., 1998. "Understanding industrial energy use: structural and energy intensity changes in Ontario industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 29-41, February.
    15. Ang, B.W. & Zhang, F.Q., 2000. "A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1149-1176.
    16. Lior Gallo, 2023. "Electricity Intensity Convergence in the OECD Countries," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2023.10, Bank of Israel.
    17. Sally Salamah & Wan Abbas Zakaria & Toto Gunarto & Lies Maria Hamzah & Muhammad Said, 2019. "Analysis of Energy Intensity Decomposition in the Textile Industrial Sub Sector of Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10.

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