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Emerging economic viability of grid defection in a northern climate using solar hybrid systems

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  • Kantamneni, Abhilash
  • Winkler, Richelle
  • Gauchia, Lucia
  • Pearce, Joshua M.

Abstract

High demand for photovoltaic (PV), battery, and small-scale combined heat and power (CHP) technologies are driving a virtuous cycle of technological improvements and cost reductions in off-grid electric systems that increasingly compete with the grid market. Using a case study in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, this paper quantifies the economic viability of off-grid PV+battery+CHP adoption and evaluates potential implications for grid-based utility models. The analysis shows that already some households could save money by switching to a solar hybrid off-grid system in comparison to the effective electric rates they are currently paying. Across the region by 2020, 92% of seasonal households and ~75% of year-round households are projected to meet electricity demands with lower costs. Furthermore, ~65% of all Upper Peninsula single-family owner-occupied households will both meet grid parity and be able to afford the systems by 2020. The results imply that economic circumstances could spur a positive feedback loop whereby grid electricity prices continue to rise and increasing numbers of customers choose alternatives (sometimes referred to as a “utility death spiral”), particularly in areas with relatively high electric utility rates. Utility companies and policy makers must take the potential for grid defection seriously when evaluating energy supply strategies.

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  • Kantamneni, Abhilash & Winkler, Richelle & Gauchia, Lucia & Pearce, Joshua M., 2016. "Emerging economic viability of grid defection in a northern climate using solar hybrid systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 378-389.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:95:y:2016:i:c:p:378-389
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.013
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    12. von Appen, J. & Braun, M., 2018. "Strategic decision making of distribution network operators and investors in residential photovoltaic battery storage systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 540-550.
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    17. Marczinkowski, Hannah Mareike & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2018. "Residential versus communal combination of photovoltaic and battery in smart energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 466-475.

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