IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v70y2014icp163-171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant? A non-parametric event history approach with P-splines

Author

Listed:
  • Thurner, Paul W.
  • Mittermeier, Laura
  • Küchenhoff, Helmut

Abstract

Governments deciding to use nuclear energy as part of their country׳s energy mix are faced with long-term planning efforts and huge investments. As nuclear power plants constitute one of the socially and politically most contested technologies, the question arises, which time horizons companies as well as politicians have to consider for the accomplishment and grid-connection of individual and whole fleets of reactors. Unfortunately, there are no large-N studies investigating the time for completion of such large-scale projects. For the first time, we statistically explain the duration of the construction of all initiated nuclear plant projects so far. Based on the International Atomic Energy׳s comprehensive Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) we assess the impact of demographic, economic, and political preconditions of a country, at the same time accounting for different types of reactor technologies. To account for non-linear relationships, we apply non-parametric survival models with P-splines. A main result of our analysis is that time of connection to grid increases over the years indicating increased societal sensibilities, respect for higher security standards, and increased project complexities. The Harrisburg and the Chernobyl disaster did not induce a separate additional delaying effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Thurner, Paul W. & Mittermeier, Laura & Küchenhoff, Helmut, 2014. "How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant? A non-parametric event history approach with P-splines," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 163-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:70:y:2014:i:c:p:163-171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.03.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514001621
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.03.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goodfellow, Martin J. & Williams, Hugo R. & Azapagic, Adisa, 2011. "Nuclear renaissance, public perception and design criteria: An exploratory review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6199-6210, October.
    2. Jewell, Jessica, 2011. "Ready for nuclear energy?: An assessment of capacities and motivations for launching new national nuclear power programs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1041-1055, March.
    3. Viklund, Mattias, 2004. "Energy policy options--from the perspective of public attitudes and risk perceptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1159-1171, July.
    4. Kitschelt, Herbert, 1986. "Four theories of public policy making and fast breeder reactor development," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 65-104, January.
    5. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna, 2014. "Measuring the impact of nuclear accidents on energy policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 121-129.
    6. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, March.
    7. Moreira, João M.L. & Gallinaro, Bruno & Carajilescov, Pedro, 2013. "Construction time of PWRs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 531-542.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Thurner, Paul W. & Bauer, Alexander & Küchenhoff, Helmut, 2016. "The effect of economic growth, oil prices, and the benefits of reactor standardization: Duration of nuclear power plant construction revisited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-59.
    2. Vazquez, Luis & Blanco, Jesús María & Ramis, Rolando & Peña, Francisco & Diaz, David, 2015. "Robust methodology for steady state measurements estimation based framework for a reliable long term thermal power plant operation performance monitoring," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 923-944.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Thurner, Paul W. & Bauer, Alexander & Küchenhoff, Helmut, 2016. "The effect of economic growth, oil prices, and the benefits of reactor standardization: Duration of nuclear power plant construction revisited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-59.
    2. Hartmann, Patrick & Apaolaza, Vanessa & D'Souza, Clare & Echebarria, Carmen & Barrutia, Jose M., 2013. "Nuclear power threats, public opposition and green electricity adoption: Effects of threat belief appraisal and fear arousal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1366-1376.
    3. Vladimir M. Cvetković & Adem Öcal & Yuliya Lyamzina & Eric K. Noji & Neda Nikolić & Goran Milošević, 2021. "Nuclear Power Risk Perception in Serbia: Fear of Exposure to Radiation vs. Social Benefits," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, April.
    4. Gumber, Anurag & Zana, Riccardo & Steffen, Bjarne, 2024. "A global analysis of renewable energy project commissioning timelines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    5. Baumgartner, Josef & Glatzer, Ernst & Rumler, Fabio & Stiglbauer, Alfred, 2005. "How frequently do consumer prices change in Austria? Evidence from micro CPI data," Working Paper Series 523, European Central Bank.
    6. Elsa Sarmento & Alcina Nunes, 2010. "Comparative Survival Analysis of Firms: the case of the Portuguese North region," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 53, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    7. Amy Y. Li, 2017. "Covet Thy Neighbor or “Reverse Policy Diffusion”? State Adoption of Performance Funding 2.0," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 58(7), pages 746-771, November.
    8. Leurent, Martin & Jasserand, Frédéric & Locatelli, Giorgio & Palm, Jenny & Rämä, Miika & Trianni, Andrea, 2017. "Driving forces and obstacles to nuclear cogeneration in Europe: Lessons learnt from Finland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 138-150.
    9. Carlos Pestana Barros & Zhongfei Chen & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Housing sales in urban Beijing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4495-4504, December.
    10. Joseph J. Capuno, 2013. "Fiscal transfers and gerrymandering under decentralization in the Philippines," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201304, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    11. Bi-Huei Tsai & Yao-Min Huang, 2023. "Comparing the Substitution of Nuclear Energy or Renewable Energy for Fossil Fuels between the United States and Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-16, June.
    12. Boardman, Brenda & Palmer, Jane, 2007. "Electricity disclosure: The troubled birth of a new policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4947-4958, October.
    13. Rehner, Robert & McCauley, Darren, 2016. "Security, justice and the energy crossroads: Assessing the implications of the nuclear phase-out in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 289-298.
    14. Schipmann, Christin & Qaim, Matin, 2009. "Modern Supply Chains and Product Innovation: How Can Smallholder Farmers Benefit?," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51046, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Boockmann, Bernhard & Steffes, Susanne, 2005. "Individual and Plant-level Determinants of Job Durations in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-89, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Goebel, Jan & Krekel, Christian & Tiefenbach, Tim & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2013. "Natural Disaster, Policy Action, and Mental Well-Being: The Case of Fukushima," IZA Discussion Papers 7691, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Nebibe Varol & Joan Costa-i-Font & Alistair McGuire, 2011. "Explaining Early Adoption on New Medicines: Regulation, Innovation and Scale," CESifo Working Paper Series 3459, CESifo.
    18. Hoti, Ferdiana & Perko, Tanja & Thijssen, Peter & Renn, Ortwin, 2021. "Who is willing to participate? Examining public participation intention concerning decommissioning of nuclear power plants in Belgium," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    19. Jean-Marie Baland & Rohini Somanathan & Lore Vandewalle, 2019. "Socially Disadvantaged Groups and Microfinance in India," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 537-569.
    20. Mari, Carlo, 2014. "Hedging electricity price volatility using nuclear power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 615-621.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:70:y:2014:i:c:p:163-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.