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Addressing uncertainty in life-cycle carbon intensity in a national low-carbon fuel standard

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  • Kocoloski, Matt
  • Mullins, Kimberley A.
  • Venkatesh, Aranya
  • Michael Griffin, W.

Abstract

Policies formulated to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as a low-carbon fuel standard, frequently rely on life-cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate emissions, but LCA results are often highly uncertain. This study develops life-cycle models that quantitatively and qualitatively describe the uncertainty and variability in GHG emissions for both fossil fuels and ethanol and examines mechanisms to reduce those uncertainties in the policy process. Uncertainty regarding emissions from gasoline is non-negligible, with an estimated 90% confidence interval ranging from 84 to 100gCO2e/MJ. Emissions from biofuels have greater uncertainty. The widths of the 90% confidence intervals for corn and switchgrass ethanol are estimated to be on the order of 100gCO2e/MJ, and removing emissions from indirect land use change still leaves significant remaining uncertainty. Though an opt-in policy mechanism can reduce some uncertainty by incentivizing producers to self-report fuel production parameters, some important parameters, such as land use change emissions and nitrogen volatilization, cannot be accurately measured and self-reported. Low-carbon fuel policies should explicitly acknowledge, quantify, and incorporate uncertainty in life cycle emissions in order to more effectively achieve emissions reductions. Two complementary ways to incorporate this uncertainty in low carbon fuel policy design are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Kocoloski, Matt & Mullins, Kimberley A. & Venkatesh, Aranya & Michael Griffin, W., 2013. "Addressing uncertainty in life-cycle carbon intensity in a national low-carbon fuel standard," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 41-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:56:y:2013:i:c:p:41-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric D. Williams & Christopher L. Weber & Troy R. Hawkins, 2009. "Hybrid Framework for Managing Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventories," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 13(6), pages 928-944, December.
    2. Madhu Khanna & Xiaoguang Chen & Haixiao Huang & Hayri Onal, 2011. "Supply of Cellulosic Biofuel Feedstocks and Regional Production Pattern," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 473-480.
    3. Kim, Man-Keun & McCarl, Bruce A., 2009. "Uncertainty Discounting for Land-Based Carbon Sequestration," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 1-11, April.
    4. Shannon M. Lloyd & Robert Ries, 2007. "Characterizing, Propagating, and Analyzing Uncertainty in Life‐Cycle Assessment: A Survey of Quantitative Approaches," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 11(1), pages 161-179, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yeh, Sonia & Witcover, Julie & Lade, Gabriel E. & Sperling, Daniel, 2016. "A review of low carbon fuel policies: Principles, program status and future directions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 220-234.
    3. Mandegari, Mohsen & Ebadian, Mahmood & Saddler, Jack (John), 2023. "The need for effective life cycle assessment (LCA) to enhance the effectiveness of policies such as low carbon fuel standards (LCFS's)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    4. Shen, Neng & Deng, Rumeng & Liao, Haolan & Shevchuk, Oleksandr, 2020. "Mapping renewable energy subsidy policy research published from 1997 to 2018: A scientometric review," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Hoekman, S. Kent & Broch, Amber, 2018. "Environmental implications of higher ethanol production and use in the U.S.: A literature review. Part II – Biodiversity, land use change, GHG emissions, and sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 3159-3177.

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