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Responses of agricultural bioenergy sectors in Brandenburg (Germany) to climate, economic and legal changes: An application of Holling's adaptive cycle

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  • Grundmann, Philipp
  • Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich
  • Uckert, Götz

Abstract

Agricultural bioenergy production is subject to dynamics such as yield fluctuations, volatile prices, resource competition, new regulation and policy, innovation and climate change. This raises questions, to what extent bioenergy production is able to adapt to changes and overcome critical events. These dynamics have important implications for effective policy development. Using a case study method, which draws on various data sources, we investigate in detail how agricultural bioenergy sectors in the German State of Brandenburg adapted to diverse past events. The case analysis rests on the adaptive-cycle concept and the system properties potential, connectedness and resilience as defined by Holling and Gunderson (2002a). Our case study concludes that Brandenburg's biogas sector has a low potential and connectedness within the system, and a low resilience against crop failures. The biofuels sector displays similar properties in the short term. In the medium term the potential could increase in both sectors. The properties imply risks and opportunities for biogas production and the possibility to develop towards a stage with a higher potential and a higher connectedness. But adaptive capacity is limited and there are certain barriers for the agricultural bioenergy sectors to overcome potentially critical states. Policy needs to be tailored accordingly.

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  • Grundmann, Philipp & Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich & Uckert, Götz, 2012. "Responses of agricultural bioenergy sectors in Brandenburg (Germany) to climate, economic and legal changes: An application of Holling's adaptive cycle," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 118-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:48:y:2012:i:c:p:118-129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.051
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    2. Chodkowska-Miszczuk, Justyna & Szymańska, Daniela, 2013. "Agricultural biogas plants—A chance for diversification of agriculture in Poland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 514-518.
    3. Susanne Theuerl & Christiane Herrmann & Monika Heiermann & Philipp Grundmann & Niels Landwehr & Ulrich Kreidenweis & Annette Prochnow, 2019. "The Future Agricultural Biogas Plant in Germany: A Vision," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-32, January.
    4. Ehsan Tavakoli-Hashjini & Annette Piorr & Klaus Müller & José Luis Vicente-Vicente, 2020. "Potential Bioenergy Production from Miscanthus × giganteus in Brandenburg: Producing Bioenergy and Fostering Other Ecosystem Services while Ensuring Food Self-Sufficiency in the Berlin-Brandenburg Reg," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich & Sutherland, Lee-Ann, 2016. "Patterns of attention to renewable energy in the British farming press from 1980 to 2013," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 959-973.
    6. Andreas Wieland, 2021. "Dancing the Supply Chain: Toward Transformative Supply Chain Management," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 57(1), pages 58-73, January.
    7. Stefano Menegat, 2022. "From Panarchy to World-Ecology: Combining the Adaptive Cycle Heuristic with Historical-Geographical Approaches to Explore Socio-Ecological Systems’ Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    8. Grundmann, Philipp & Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich, 2016. "Determinants of courses of action in bioenergy villages responding to changes in renewable heat utilization policy," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 183-192.
    9. Xupu Li & Shuangshuang Li & Yufeng Zhang & Patrick J. O’Connor & Liwei Zhang & Junping Yan, 2021. "Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment under Multiple Indicators," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    10. Vergara, Felipe & Lakes, Tobia Maike, 2019. "Maizification of the landscape for biogas production? Identifying the likelihood of silage maize for biogas in Brandenburg from 2008-2018," FORLand Working Papers 16 (2019), Humboldt University Berlin, DFG Research Unit 2569 FORLand "Agricultural Land Markets – Efficiency and Regulation".
    11. Xueqing Yang & Yang Liu & Mei Wang & Alberto Bezama & Daniela Thrän, 2021. "Identifying the Necessities of Regional-Based Analysis to Study Germany’s Biogas Production Development under Energy Transition," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.

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