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A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

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  • Wang, Jianliang
  • Feng, Lianyong
  • Zhao, Lin
  • Snowden, Simon
  • Wang, Xu

Abstract

This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world's conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world's conventional oil (crude+NGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world's conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China's policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Zhao, Lin & Snowden, Simon & Wang, Xu, 2011. "A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7616-7621.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:12:p:7616-7621
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.07.043
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    Cited by:

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    8. Hu, Yan & Hall, Charles A.S. & Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Poisson, Alexandre, 2013. "Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of China's conventional fossil fuels: Historical and future trends," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 352-364.
    9. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Steve, Mohr & Tang, Xu & Gail, Tverberg E. & Mikael, Höök, 2015. "China's unconventional oil: A review of its resources and outlook for long-term production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 31-42.
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    13. Yang, Guangfei & Li, Xianneng & Wang, Jianliang & Lian, Lian & Ma, Tieju, 2015. "Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 48-61.
    14. Fang, Jianchun & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Lu, Zhou & Wu, Wanshan, 2018. "Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 250-258.
    15. Wang, Ke & Feng, Lianyong & Wang, Jianliang & Xiong, Yi & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "An oil production forecast for China considering economic limits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 586-596.
    16. Al Rawashdeh, Rami, 2020. "World peak potash: An analytical study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. António Mateus & Catarina Lopes & Luís Martins & Mário Abel Gonçalves, 2021. "Current and Foreseen Tungsten Production in Portugal, and the Need of Safeguarding the Access to Relevant Known Resources," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-26, June.
    18. Zhang, Yujiang & Feng, Guorui & Zhang, Min & Ren, Hongrui & Bai, Jinwen & Guo, Yuxia & Jiang, Haina & Kang, Lixun, 2016. "Residual coal exploitation and its impact on sustainable development of the coal industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 534-541.
    19. Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.
    20. Zhou, Nan & Zhang, Jingjing & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Jiang, Shan & Liu, Xu, 2019. "Intertwined impacts of water, energy development, and carbon emissions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 78-91.
    21. Huang, Chen & Gu, Baihe & Chen, Yingchao & Tan, Xianchun & Feng, Lianyong, 2019. "Energy return on energy, carbon, and water investment in oil and gas resource extraction: Methods and applications to the Daqing and Shengli oilfields," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    22. Wang, Xibo & Lei, Yalin & Ge, Jianping & Wu, Sanmang, 2015. "Production forecast of China׳s rare earths based on the Generalized Weng model and policy recommendations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 11-18.
    23. Najla Abdulaziz Khonji & Saad M. A. Suliman, 2020. "Product Mix Optimization for an Oil Field Operating Company," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(10), pages 1-20, October.

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