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A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

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  • Wang, Jianliang
  • Feng, Lianyong
  • Zhao, Lin
  • Snowden, Simon
  • Wang, Xu

Abstract

This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world's conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world's conventional oil (crude+NGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world's conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China's policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Zhao, Lin & Snowden, Simon & Wang, Xu, 2011. "A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7616-7621.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:12:p:7616-7621
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.07.043
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    Cited by:

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    7. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Steve, Mohr & Tang, Xu & Gail, Tverberg E. & Mikael, Höök, 2015. "China's unconventional oil: A review of its resources and outlook for long-term production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 31-42.
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    10. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
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    12. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, Haiyan & Zhou, Qingping & Wu, Jie & Qin, Shanshan, 2016. "China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1149-1167.
    13. Huang, Chen & Gu, Baihe & Chen, Yingchao & Tan, Xianchun & Feng, Lianyong, 2019. "Energy return on energy, carbon, and water investment in oil and gas resource extraction: Methods and applications to the Daqing and Shengli oilfields," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Wang, Xibo & Lei, Yalin & Ge, Jianping & Wu, Sanmang, 2015. "Production forecast of China׳s rare earths based on the Generalized Weng model and policy recommendations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 11-18.
    15. Najla Abdulaziz Khonji & Saad M. A. Suliman, 2020. "Product Mix Optimization for an Oil Field Operating Company," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(10), pages 1-20, October.
    16. Wang, Jianliang & Guo, Meiyu & Liu, Mingming & Wei, Xinqiang, 2020. "Long-term outlook for global rare earth production," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Wang, Jianliang & Mohr, Steve & Feng, Lianyong & Liu, Huihui & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "Analysis of resource potential for China’s unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 389-401.
    18. Hu, Yan & Hall, Charles A.S. & Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Poisson, Alexandre, 2013. "Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of China's conventional fossil fuels: Historical and future trends," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 352-364.
    19. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Zhao, Lin & Snowden, Simon, 2013. "China's natural gas: Resources, production and its impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 690-698.
    20. Yang, Guangfei & Li, Xianneng & Wang, Jianliang & Lian, Lian & Ma, Tieju, 2015. "Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 48-61.
    21. Wang, Ke & Feng, Lianyong & Wang, Jianliang & Xiong, Yi & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "An oil production forecast for China considering economic limits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 586-596.
    22. António Mateus & Catarina Lopes & Luís Martins & Mário Abel Gonçalves, 2021. "Current and Foreseen Tungsten Production in Portugal, and the Need of Safeguarding the Access to Relevant Known Resources," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-26, June.
    23. Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.

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