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System dynamics model for analysis of demand response on incorporating autoswitch in the Colombian electrical sector

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  • Niño-Zambrano, Miguel-Angel
  • Cobos-Lozada, Carlos-Alberto
  • Mendoza-Becerra, Martha-Eliana
  • Ordóñez-Erazo, Hugo-Armando
  • García-Sierra, Rodolfo

Abstract

This study investigates the potential outcomes of transforming the Colombian electricity market—70% of which is regulated—into a deregulated market. Given the impact of climate change and the need for greater control over the Colombian retail energy sector, it is crucial to examine future scenarios where two policies, successful in other countries, could improve market management. A simulation was conducted using a system dynamics model to analyze residential user behavior by manipulating demand response and implementing an autoswitch policy. The results validate the effectiveness of regulating electricity consumption through price management and the autoswitch policy, where customers can automatically switch suppliers. By 2033, these policies could reduce electricity prices by 11%–14%, depending on weather and user behavior changes, leading to significant customer savings, especially for higher-income groups, while ensuring suppliers' profitability. Although the conclusions suggest a positive outlook, the implementation of these policies requires regulatory changes and the adoption of smart energy meters. he proven policies could help Colombian government in managing consumption during energy crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Niño-Zambrano, Miguel-Angel & Cobos-Lozada, Carlos-Alberto & Mendoza-Becerra, Martha-Eliana & Ordóñez-Erazo, Hugo-Armando & García-Sierra, Rodolfo, 2024. "System dynamics model for analysis of demand response on incorporating autoswitch in the Colombian electrical sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:193:y:2024:i:c:s0301421524002775
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114257
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