The profitability of transnational energy infrastructure: A comparative analysis of the Greenstream and Galsi gas pipelines

This paper explores how the profitability of European transnational gas infrastructure is affected by (i) alternative ways to organize the gas supply chain; and (ii) different forms of energy diplomacy. In particular, through a case study, the paper analyses how these factors determined the realisation and success of the Greenstream pipeline and the stalemate of the Galsi pipeline, despite the potential for both projects to be profitable. The issue is important in view of the full transition to the EU Single Market, of which unbundling and privatisation are policy pillars. In fact, before the transition, vertical integration in the foreign upstream and energy diplomacy were key elements for infrastructure profitability. The paper argues that these elements are still important, as constraints to gas procurement and binding contractual relations with producers have not changed substantially. Nevertheless, securing those advantages within the EU Single Market framework requires significant innovations. In particular, the paper suggests forms of EU energy diplomacy, based on bilateral trade deals, which could achieve forms of vertical integration for energy firms as well as help EU and non-EU counterparts align their interests. This paper may prove particularly relevant for the recent debate on how to shape EU energy diplomacy.