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Time to get ready: Conceptualizing the temporal and spatial dynamics of formative phases for energy technologies

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  • Bento, Nuno
  • Wilson, Charlie
  • Anadon, Laura Diaz

Abstract

Implementing the Paris agreement to prevent dangerous climate change requires energy system transformation and rapid diffusion of low-carbon innovations. In this paper we investigate both the temporal and spatial dynamics of formative phases by which energy technologies prepare for growth. Drawing on a review of diverse literatures, we offer a definition of the formative phase which clarifies its scope and duration, and identifies its main technological and economic determinants. We use parametric hazard models to assess the relative strengths of these determinants on formative phase durations for a sample of 15 energy technologies diffusing over time in their respective initial markets. We find that substitutability has stronger effects in accelerating the end of formative phases than installed capacity and prices. We extend our analysis using nonparametric models to analyze the spatial diffusion of formative phase durations from initial to follower markets. We find that formative phase durations are long outside initial markets as well, showing only signs of acceleration in latecomer regions. Our results imply risks for policies trying to accelerate the diffusion of large innovations without ready markets in both initial and follower markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bento, Nuno & Wilson, Charlie & Anadon, Laura Diaz, 2018. "Time to get ready: Conceptualizing the temporal and spatial dynamics of formative phases for energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 282-293.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:119:y:2018:i:c:p:282-293
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.015
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    Cited by:

    1. Warneryd, Martin & Håkansson, Maria & Karltorp, Kersti, 2020. "Unpacking the complexity of community microgrids: A review of institutions’ roles for development of microgrids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Fadly, Dalia & Fontes, Francisco, 2019. "Geographical proximity and renewable energy diffusion: An empirical approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 422-435.
    3. Adrian Odenweller & Falko Ueckerdt & Gregory F. Nemet & Miha Jensterle & Gunnar Luderer, 2022. "Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 854-865, September.
    4. Deyu Li & Floor Alkemade & Koen Frenken & Gaston Heimeriks, 2023. "Catching up in clean energy technologies: a patent analysis," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 693-715, April.
    5. Nelson, Sarah & Allwood, Julian M., 2021. "The technological and social timelines of climate mitigation: Lessons from 12 past transitions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Mariola Piłatowska & Andrzej Geise, 2021. "Impact of Clean Energy on CO 2 Emissions and Economic Growth within the Phases of Renewables Diffusion in Selected European Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Zimm, Caroline, 2021. "Improving the understanding of electric vehicle technology and policy diffusion across countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 54-66.
    8. Rövekamp, Patrick & Schöpf, Michael & Wagon, Felix & Weibelzahl, Martin, 2023. "For better or for worse? On the economic and ecologic value of industrial demand side management in constrained electricity grids," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).

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