IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v97y2021ics0140988321000840.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Security of supply and the energy transition: The households' perspective investigated through a discrete choice model with latent classes

Author

Listed:
  • Motz, Alessandra

Abstract

A consumer-centric, market-based approach to the security of electricity supply has been recognized as increasingly important in the context of the energy transition. Nonetheless, there is no clear-cut evidence regarding the drivers of consumer preferences toward security and the perceived trade-offs between security and sustainability. Using stated preference data, we develop a discrete choice model with latent classes to assess the willingness-to-accept (WTA) of Swiss households for variations in the frequency and duration of blackouts, while accounting for the primary energy sources used for generation. Our WTA estimates range from slightly negative values up to ten times the current electricity prices, depending on the characteristics of both blackouts, and respondents. More specifically, we identify three latent classes showing different preferences toward blackout frequency and length, but also different sensitivities toward blackouts associated to nuclear or solar generation, as well as toward prospective changes in the generation mix. Energy illiteracy, concern about the economic impact of blackouts, and concern about nuclear generation are the main determinants of class membership probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Motz, Alessandra, 2021. "Security of supply and the energy transition: The households' perspective investigated through a discrete choice model with latent classes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:97:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321000840
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105179
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321000840
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105179?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harry Foster & James Burrows, 2017. "Hypothetical bias: a new meta-analysis," Chapters, in: Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train (ed.), Contingent Valuation of Environmental Goods, chapter 10, pages 270-291, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Abdullah, Sabah & Mariel, Petr, 2010. "Choice experiment study on the willingness to pay to improve electricity services," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4570-4581, August.
    3. Carlsson, Fredrik & Martinsson, Peter, 2008. "Does it matter when a power outage occurs? -- A choice experiment study on the willingness to pay to avoid power outages," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1232-1245, May.
    4. Pepermans, Guido, 2011. "The value of continuous power supply for Flemish households," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7853-7864.
    5. Nkosi, Nomsa Phindile & Dikgang, Johane, 2018. "Pricing electricity blackouts among South African households," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 37-47.
    6. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train (ed.), 2017. "Contingent Valuation of Environmental Goods," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 17527.
    7. Fredrik Carlsson & Peter Martinsson, 2007. "Willingness to Pay among Swedish Households to Avoid Power Outages: A Random Parameter Tobit Model Approach," The Energy Journal, , vol. 28(1), pages 75-90, January.
    8. David Hensher & William Greene, 2010. "Non-attendance and dual processing of common-metric attributes in choice analysis: a latent class specification," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 413-426, October.
    9. Greene, William H. & Hensher, David A., 2003. "A latent class model for discrete choice analysis: contrasts with mixed logit," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 681-698, September.
    10. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Leahy, Eimear & Tol, Richard S.J., 2011. "An estimate of the value of lost load for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1514-1520, March.
    12. Ozbafli, Aygul & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2016. "Estimating the willingness to pay for reliable electricity supply: A choice experiment study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 443-452.
    13. Ozbafli, Aygul & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2015. "The willingness to pay by households for improved reliability of electricity service in North Cyprus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 359-369.
    14. Abrate, Graziano & Bruno, Clementina & Erbetta, Fabrizio & Fraquelli, Giovanni & Lorite-Espejo, Azahara, 2016. "A choice experiment on the willingness of households to accept power outages," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(PB), pages 151-164.
    15. Larsen, Erik R. & Osorio, Sebastian & van Ackere, Ann, 2017. "A framework to evaluate security of supply in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 646-655.
    16. Carlsson, Fredrik & Martinsson, Peter & Akay, Alpaslan, 2011. "The effect of power outages and cheap talk on willingness to pay to reduce outages," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 790-798, September.
    17. Baarsma, Barbara E. & Hop, J. Peter, 2009. "Pricing power outages in the Netherlands," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1378-1386.
    18. Amador, Francisco Javier & González, Rosa Marina & Ramos-Real, Francisco Javier, 2013. "Supplier choice and WTP for electricity attributes in an emerging market: The role of perceived past experience, environmental concern and energy saving behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 953-966.
    19. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Poullikkas, Andreas, 2012. "The costs of power outages: A case study from Cyprus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 630-641.
    20. Castro, Rui & Faias, Sérgio & Esteves, Jorge, 2016. "The cost of electricity interruptions in Portugal: Valuing lost load by applying the production-function approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 48-57.
    21. Linares, Pedro & Rey, Luis, 2013. "The costs of electricity interruptions in Spain. Are we sending the right signals?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 751-760.
    22. de Nooij, Michiel & Lieshout, Rogier & Koopmans, Carl, 2009. "Optimal blackouts: Empirical results on reducing the social cost of electricity outages through efficient regional rationing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 342-347, May.
    23. Kim, Kayoung & Nam, Heekoo & Cho, Youngsang, 2015. "Estimation of the inconvenience cost of a rolling blackout in the residential sector: The case of South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-86.
    24. Cohen, Jed J. & Moeltner, Klaus & Reichl, Johannes & Schmidthaler, Michael, 2016. "Linking the value of energy reliability to the acceptance of energy infrastructure: Evidence from the EU," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 124-143.
    25. Finon, Dominique & Pignon, Virginie, 2008. "Electricity and long-term capacity adequacy: The quest for regulatory mechanism compatible with electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 143-158, September.
    26. Woo, C.K. & Ho, T. & Shiu, A. & Cheng, Y.S. & Horowitz, I. & Wang, J., 2014. "Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 204-210.
    27. Rodilla, P. & Batlle, C., 2012. "Security of electricity supply at the generation level: Problem analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 177-185.
    28. Munasinghe, Mohan, 1980. "Costs Incurred by Residential Electricity Consumers Due to Power Failures," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 6(4), pages 361-369, March.
    29. Abbott, Malcolm, 2001. "Is the Security of Electricity Supply a Public Good?," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(7), pages 31-33.
    30. de Nooij, Michiel & Koopmans, Carl & Bijvoet, Carlijn, 2007. "The value of supply security: The costs of power interruptions: Economic input for damage reduction and investment in networks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-295, March.
    31. Aygul Ozbafli & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2015. "The Willingness To Pay By Households For Improved Reliability Of Electricity Service," Development Discussion Papers 2015-02, JDI Executive Programs.
    32. Dominique Finon & Virginie Pignon, 2008. "Electricity and long-term capacity adequacy: The quest for regulatory mechanism compatible with electricity market," Post-Print hal-00716312, HAL.
    33. Morrissey, Karyn & Plater, Andrew & Dean, Mary, 2018. "The cost of electric power outages in the residential sector: A willingness to pay approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 141-150.
    34. Hurtubia, Ricardo & Nguyen, My Hang & Glerum, Aurélie & Bierlaire, Michel, 2014. "Integrating psychometric indicators in latent class choice models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 135-146.
    35. Amoah, Anthony & Ferrini, Silvia & Schaafsma, Marije, 2019. "Electricity outages in Ghana: Are contingent valuation estimates valid?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    36. Reichl, Johannes & Schmidthaler, Michael & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "The value of supply security: The costs of power outages to Austrian households, firms and the public sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 256-261.
    37. Daniel McFadden, 2017. "Stated preference methods and their applicability to environmental use and non-use valuations," Chapters, in: Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train (ed.), Contingent Valuation of Environmental Goods, chapter 6, pages 153-187, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    38. Merk, Christine & Rehdanz, Katrin & Schröder, Carsten, 2019. "How consumers trade off supply security and green electricity: Evidence from Germany and Great Britain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(S1).
    39. Chandra R. Bhat, 1997. "An Endogenous Segmentation Mode Choice Model with an Application to Intercity Travel," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(1), pages 34-48, February.
    40. Praktiknjo, Aaron J. & Hähnel, Alexander & Erdmann, Georg, 2011. "Assessing energy supply security: Outage costs in private households," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7825-7833.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Du, Juntao & Shen, Zhiyang & Song, Malin & Vardanyan, Michael, 2023. "The role of green financing in facilitating renewable energy transition in China: Perspectives from energy governance, environmental regulation, and market reforms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Wang, Bo & Zhao, Jun & Dong, Kangyin & Jiang, Qingzhe, 2022. "High-quality energy development in China: Comprehensive assessment and its impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Charlier, Dorothée, 2021. "Explaining the energy performance gap in buildings with a latent profile analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Huaccha, Gissell, 2023. "Who bears the energy cost? Local income deprivation and the household energy efficiency gap," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    5. Xu, Shuling & Yang, Zihan & Deng, Nana & Wang, Bo, 2024. "Residents' willingness to be compensated for power rationing during peak hours based on choice experiment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    6. Jin, Taeyoung & Lee, Tae Eui & Kim, Dowon, 2024. "Valuing flexible resources in the Korean electricity market based on stated preference methods," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Navigating the energy trilemma during geopolitical and environmental crises," Papers 2301.07671, arXiv.org.
    8. Aweke, Abinet Tilahun & Navrud, Ståle, 2022. "Valuing energy poverty costs: Household welfare loss from electricity blackouts in developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    9. Dorothée Charlier, 2021. "Explaining the energy performance gap in buildings with a latent profile analysis," Post-Print hal-03894155, HAL.
    10. Jin, Taeyoung & Lee, Tae Eui & Kim, Dowon, 2023. "Value of lost load estimation for the South Korea's manufacturing sector—finding the gap between the supply and demand side," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    11. Bigerna, Simona & Ceccacci, Francesca & Micheli, Silvia & Polinori, Paolo, 2023. "Between saying and doing for ensuring energy resources supply: The case of Italy in time of crisis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jin, Taeyoung & Lee, Tae Eui & Kim, Dowon, 2023. "Value of lost load estimation for the South Korea's manufacturing sector—finding the gap between the supply and demand side," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. Amoah, Anthony & Ferrini, Silvia & Schaafsma, Marije, 2019. "Electricity outages in Ghana: Are contingent valuation estimates valid?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Morrissey, Karyn & Plater, Andrew & Dean, Mary, 2018. "The cost of electric power outages in the residential sector: A willingness to pay approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 141-150.
    4. Aweke, Abinet Tilahun & Navrud, Ståle, 2022. "Valuing energy poverty costs: Household welfare loss from electricity blackouts in developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Ovaere, Marten & Heylen, Evelyn & Proost, Stef & Deconinck, Geert & Van Hertem, Dirk, 2019. "How detailed value of lost load data impact power system reliability decisions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1064-1075.
    6. Paul Nduhuura & Matthias Garschagen & Abdellatif Zerga, 2021. "Impacts of Electricity Outages in Urban Households in Developing Countries: A Case of Accra, Ghana," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-26, June.
    7. Chen, Hao & Chen, Xi & Niu, Jinye & Xiang, Mengyu & He, Weijun & Küfeoğlu, Sinan, 2021. "Estimating the marginal cost of reducing power outage durations in China: A parametric distance function approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    8. Kim, Kayoung & Nam, Heekoo & Cho, Youngsang, 2015. "Estimation of the inconvenience cost of a rolling blackout in the residential sector: The case of South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-86.
    9. Jin, Taeyoung & Lee, Tae Eui & Kim, Dowon, 2024. "Valuing flexible resources in the Korean electricity market based on stated preference methods," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Majid Hashemi & Glenn P. Jenkins & Roop Jyoti & Aygul Ozbafli, 2018. "Evaluating the Cost to Industry of Electricity Outages," Development Discussion Papers 2018-14, JDI Executive Programs.
    11. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Qu, Songze & Ancev, Tihomir, 2021. "Are electricity system outages and the generation mix related? Evidence from NSW, Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Elie Bouri & Joseph El Assad, 2016. "The Lebanese Electricity Woes: An Estimation of the Economical Costs of Power Interruptions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-12, July.
    13. Deutschmann, Joshua W. & Postepska, Agnieszka & Sarr, Leopold, 2021. "Measuring willingness to pay for reliable electricity: Evidence from Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Carlsson, Fredrik & Kataria, Mitesh & Lampi, Elina & Martinsson, Peter, 2021. "Past and present outage costs – A follow-up study of households’ willingness to pay to avoid power outages," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Hashemi, Majid, 2021. "The economic value of unsupplied electricity: Evidence from Nepal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    16. Nkosi, Nomsa Phindile & Dikgang, Johane, 2018. "Pricing electricity blackouts among South African households," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 37-47.
    17. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Navigating the energy trilemma during geopolitical and environmental crises," Papers 2301.07671, arXiv.org.
    18. Thomas, Douglas & Fung, Juan, 2022. "Measuring downstream supply chain losses due to power disturbances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    19. Abrate, Graziano & Bruno, Clementina & Erbetta, Fabrizio & Fraquelli, Giovanni & Lorite-Espejo, Azahara, 2016. "A choice experiment on the willingness of households to accept power outages," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(PB), pages 151-164.
    20. Ju-Hee Kim & Kyung-Kyu Lim & Seung-Hoon Yoo, 2019. "Evaluating Residential Consumers’ Willingness to Pay to Avoid Power Outages in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-12, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:97:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321000840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.