IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v82y2019icp70-77.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk premia in the German day-ahead electricity market revisited: The impact of negative prices*

* This paper is a replication of an original study

Author

Listed:
  • Valitov, Niyaz

Abstract

This paper replicates the study by Viehmann (2011) that investigated risk premia in the German day-ahead electricity market from October 2005 to September 2008. While estimated sizes of risk premia can be replicated, this paper does not reproduce respective standard errors, leading to remarkable differences between the reported significance levels. An extension with data of preceding years points to further differences with respect to size and statistical significance. In addition, this paper analyzes the impact of negative prices on risk premia. Negative electricity prices were introduced in 2008 at the European Power Exchange (EPEX), and in 2013 at the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA). The results of an econometric analysis suggest that the introduction of negative prices has led to a decrease in risk premia when compared to the period of a positive price regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Valitov, Niyaz, 2019. "Risk premia in the German day-ahead electricity market revisited: The impact of negative prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 70-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:82:y:2019:i:c:p:70-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988318300288
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viehmann, Johannes, 2011. "Risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 386-394, January.
    2. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    3. Graf, Christoph & Wozabal, David, 2013. "Measuring competitiveness of the EPEX spot market for electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 948-958.
    4. Nicolosi, Marco, 2010. "Wind power integration and power system flexibility-An empirical analysis of extreme events in Germany under the new negative price regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7257-7268, November.
    5. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert & Sven Husmann, 2015. "Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets," Papers 1501.00818, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2015.
    6. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    7. Clò, Stefano & D'Adamo, Gaetano, 2015. "The dark side of the sun: How solar power production affects the market value of solar and gas sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 523-530.
    8. Bönte, Werner & Nielen, Sebastian & Valitov, Niyaz & Engelmeyer, Torben, 2015. "Price elasticity of demand in the EPEX spot market for electricity—New empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 5-8.
    9. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick & Husmann, Sven, 2015. "Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 430-444.
    10. Fanone, Enzo & Gamba, Andrea & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "The case of negative day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 22-34.
    11. Lazarczyk, Ewa, 2016. "Market-specific news and its impact on forward premia on electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 326-336.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1877-1900 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Market efficiency and risk premia in short-term forward prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1931-1941.
    14. Zachmann, Georg, 2008. "Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1659-1671, July.
    15. Pape, Christian & Hagemann, Simon & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Are fundamentals enough? Explaining price variations in the German day-ahead and intraday power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 376-387.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valitov, Niyaz & Maier, Andreas, 2020. "Asymmetric information in the German intraday electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Liu, Shuangquan & Xie, Mengfei, 2020. "Modeling the daily generation schedules in under-developed electricity markets with high-share renewables: A case study of Yunnan in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    4. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2021. "The electricity production cost curve during extreme winter weather," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Carlson, Ewa Lazarczyk & Pickford, Kit & Nyga-Łukaszewska, Honorata, 2023. "Green hydrogen and an evolving concept of energy security: Challenges and comparisons," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    6. Martínez-Jaramillo, Juan Esteban & van Ackere, Ann & Larsen, Erik R., 2022. "Transitioning towards a 100% solar-hydro based generation: A system dynamic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    7. Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Günay, Samet, 2020. "Co-movements and spillovers of oil and renewable firms under extreme conditions: New evidence from negative WTI prices during COVID-19," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    8. Sousa, Joana & Soares, Isabel, 2020. "Demand response, market design and risk: A literature review," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher Kath, 2019. "Modeling Intraday Markets under the New Advances of the Cross-Border Intraday Project (XBID): Evidence from the German Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-35, November.
    2. Valitov, Niyaz & Maier, Andreas, 2020. "Asymmetric information in the German intraday electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    4. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
    5. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    6. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Econometric modelling and forecasting of intraday electricity prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    7. Mahringer, Steffen & Fuess, Roland & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity Market Coupling and the Pricing of Transmission Rights: An Option-based Approach," Working Papers on Finance 1512, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    8. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2021. "The electricity production cost curve during extreme winter weather," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    9. Kallabis, Thomas & Pape, Christian & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-290.
    10. A Ciarreta and A Zarraga, 2015. "Analysis of mean and volatility price transmissions in the MIBEL and EPEX electricity spot markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    11. Ilkay Oksuz & Umut Ugurlu, 2019. "Neural Network Based Model Comparison for Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
    12. Pape, Christian & Hagemann, Simon & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Are fundamentals enough? Explaining price variations in the German day-ahead and intraday power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 376-387.
    13. repec:dui:wpaper:1502 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Keles, Dogan & Dehler-Holland, Joris & Densing, Martin & Panos, Evangelos & Hack, Felix, 2020. "Cross-border effects in interconnected electricity markets - an analysis of the Swiss electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Vrancx, Peter & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 890-903.
    16. Koten, Silvester Van, 2020. "Forward premia in electricity markets: A replication study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    18. Jesus Lago & Fjo De Ridder & Peter Vrancx & Bart De Schutter, 2017. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: the importance of considering market integration," Papers 1708.07061, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    19. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    20. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert & Sven Husmann, 2015. "Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets," Papers 1501.00818, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2015.
    21. repec:dui:wpaper:1504 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da & Cerqueira, Pedro A., 2016. "It is windy in Denmark: Does market integration suffer?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1385-1399.

    Replication

    This item is a replication of:
  • Viehmann, Johannes, 2011. "Risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 386-394, January.

    • Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:82:y:2019:i:c:p:70-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.