How does the new-type urbanisation affect CO2 emissions in China? An empirical analysis from the perspective of technological progress

The development of traditional urbanisation has generated environmental problems, so the Chinese Government has proposed a new-type of urbanisation path with uniquely Chinese characteristics. How does this new-type of urbanisation affect CO2 emissions? Based on panel data from 29 provinces in China (2005 to 2016), we apply an exploratory spatial data analysis model, a spatial econometric model, and a threshold model to analyse the spatial autocorrelation of CO2 emissions, the direct and indirect effects of new-type urbanisation on CO2 emissions, and the threshold characteristics produced by technological progress, respectively. The key results are: (1) CO2 emissions show significant positive autocorrelation in China, and the spatial distribution of CO2 emissions is HH (High-High) or LL (Low-Low) clustered in most provinces; (2) new-type urbanisation has a paradoxical effect on CO2 emissions. Energy-saving technology has a rebound effect on CO2 emissions, but environmental technology inhibits CO2 emissions; (3) by eliminating the rebound effect of energy-saving technology on CO2 emissions and promoting environmental technology, new-type urbanisation indirectly inhibits CO2 emissions; (4) new-type urbanisation exhibits a threshold effect on CO2 emissions due to the different levels of energy-saving technology and environmental technology. Finally, policy recommendations for CO2 emissions reduction are proposed from the perspective of new-type urbanisation, energy-saving technology, and environmental technology.