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Price elasticity of gasoline smuggling: A semi-structural estimation approach

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  • Ghoddusi, Hamed
  • Rafizadeh, Nima
  • Rahmati, Mohammad H.

Abstract

We estimate the price elasticity of the demand for gasoline smuggling in Iran. For this purpose, we employ a detailed panel of monthly gasoline consumption data from 160 distribution hubs during the period 2005–2014. We apply two different approaches which are diff-in-diff and panel data estimations. The results suggest that the foreign-to-home gasoline price ratios have a significant impact on the time-varying elasticity of demand. This finding supports the hypothesis that an increase in domestic gasoline prices will significantly reduce the demand for smuggling. In addition, as the distance of a region from its closest higher-price neighboring country diminishes, the price elasticity of demand for gasoline smuggling for that region declines as well. Finally, we find that when the ratio of foreign to domestic prices is higher, the gasoline demand sensitivities to price in neighboring countries go up. Our work offers new insights regarding the welfare impact of removing fuel subsidies and modifying fuel pricing policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghoddusi, Hamed & Rafizadeh, Nima & Rahmati, Mohammad H., 2018. "Price elasticity of gasoline smuggling: A semi-structural estimation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 171-185.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:171-185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.02.008
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    Cited by:

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    2. Moshiri, Saeed, 2020. "Consumer responses to gasoline price and non-price policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Majidpour, Mehdi, 2022. "Policy lessons from the execution of fuel dual-pricing: Insights for fuel-subsidizing economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    4. Aryanpur, V. & Ghahremani, M. & Mamipour, S. & Fattahi, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B. & Bazilian, M.D. & Glynn, J., 2022. "Ex-post analysis of energy subsidy removal through integrated energy systems modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Morovati, Mohammad & Rafizadeh, Nima, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Shocks and Gasoline Consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Afkhami, Mohamad & Ghoddusi, Hamed & Rafizadeh, Nima, 2021. "Google Search Explains Your Gasoline Consumption!," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Morovati, Mohammad & Rafizadeh, Nima, 2022. "Dynamics of fuel demand elasticity: Evidence from Iranian subsidy reforms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Leonid Galchynskyi, 2020. "Estimation of the price elasticity of petroleum products’ consumption in Ukraine," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 315-339, June.
    9. Kheiravar, Khaled H, 2019. "Economic and Econometric Analyses of the World Petroleum Industry, Energy Subsidies, and Air Pollution," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3gj151w9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gasoline smuggling; Fuel subsidy removal; Price elasticity; Gasoline price differential; Panel data estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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