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Cost–benefit analysis under uncertainty — A note on Weitzman's dismal theorem

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  • Horowitz, John
  • Lange, Andreas

Abstract

Weitzman's (2009) famous dismal theorem argues that “fat tails” in the distribution of warming may pose problems for cost–benefit analysis as it may imply that society might be willing to exchange today's consumption for future consumption at an infinite rate. His analysis is based on the stochastic discount factor. We show that in situations in which the stochastic discount factor is applicable, it is optimal for society to devote only a finite amount of resources to protect against climate change. For general assumptions on the investment returns, cost–benefit analysis must consider the joint distribution of the marginal utility of future consumption and marginal returns to investment in the different future states of nature. We explore the range of situations under which challenges for applying cost–benefit analysis under uncertainty remain.

Suggested Citation

  • Horowitz, John & Lange, Andreas, 2014. "Cost–benefit analysis under uncertainty — A note on Weitzman's dismal theorem," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 201-203.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:201-203
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.12.013
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    1. Karp, Larry S., 2009. "Sacrifice, discounting and climate policy: five questions," CUDARE Working Papers 51612, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. William D. Nordhaus, 2011. "The Economics of Tail Events with an Application to Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 240-257, Summer.
    4. William D. Nordhaus, 2009. "An Analysis of the Dismal Theorem," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1686, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Karp, Larry S., 2009. "Sacrifice, discounting and climate policy : five questions," CUDARE Working Paper Series 1086, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
    6. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics > Uncertainty

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard S.J. Tol, 2018. "The impact of climate change and the social cost of carbon," Working Paper Series 1318, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. David Anthoff & Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "Testing the Dismal Theorem," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(5), pages 885-920.
    3. Lee, Amy H.I. & Chen, Hsing Hung & Chen, Jack, 2017. "Building smart grid to power the next century in Taiwan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 126-135.
    4. Buchholz Wolfgang & Heindl Peter, 2015. "Ökonomische Herausforderungen des Klimawandels," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 324-350, December.
    5. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Leroux, Justin, 2016. "Plaidoyer pour une autre approche des politiques climatiques : De la poursuite de l’intérêt propre à l’introduction du principe de responsabilité [For another approach to climate policy: From the p," MPRA Paper 74998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Andrea Rampa, 2020. "Climate change, catastrophes and Dismal Theorem: a critical review [Klimawandel, Katastrophen und das „Dismal Theorem“: eine kritische Überprüfung]," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 40(2), pages 113-136, October.
    7. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    8. In Chang Hwang & Richard S. J. Tol & Marjan W. Hofkes, 2019. "Active Learning and Optimal Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1237-1264, August.
    9. In Chang Hwang, 2016. "Active learning and optimal climate policy," EcoMod2016 9611, EcoMod.
    10. Hwang, In Chang, 2014. "Fat-tailed uncertainty and the learning-effect," MPRA Paper 53671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Christoph M. Rheinberger & Nicolas Treich, 2017. "Attitudes Toward Catastrophe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(3), pages 609-636, July.
    12. Hwang, In Chang & Tol, Richard S.J. & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2016. "Fat-tailed risk about climate change and climate policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 25-35.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decisions under uncertainty; Cost–benefit-analysis; Climate policy; Dismal theorem;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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