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Seasonality in deep learning forecasts of electricity imbalance prices

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  • Deng, Sinan
  • Inekwe, John
  • Smirnov, Vladimir
  • Wait, Andrew
  • Wang, Chao

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a seasonal attention mechanism, the effectiveness of which is evaluated via the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) model. We compare its performance with alternative deep learning and machine learning models in forecasting the balancing settlement prices in the electricity market of Great Britain. Critically, the Seasonal Attention-Based BiLSTM framework provides a superior forecast of extreme prices with an out-of-sample gain in the predictability of 11%–15% compared with models in the literature. Our forecasting techniques could aid both market participants, to better manage their risk and assign their assets, and policy makers, to operate the system at lower cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Sinan & Inekwe, John & Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew & Wang, Chao, 2024. "Seasonality in deep learning forecasts of electricity imbalance prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:137:y:2024:i:c:s014098832400478x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107770
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Electricity; Balance settlement prices; Deep learning; Machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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