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The effect of flow-based market coupling on cross-border exchange volumes and price convergence in Central Western European electricity markets

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  • Ovaere, Marten
  • Kenis, Michiel
  • Van den Bergh, Kenneth
  • Bruninx, Kenneth
  • Delarue, Erik

Abstract

Since 2015 available cross-border transmission capacity is determined using flow-based market coupling (FBMC) in the day-ahead electricity markets of Central Western Europe. This paper empirically estimates the effect of introducing FBMC on day-ahead electricity price convergence and cross-border exchange volumes. In the month following the introduction of FBMC, hourly cross-border exchange volumes increased by 1,700 MWh/h, while prices between countries converged by 10.4 €/MWh. Since then, observed cross-border exchange volumes decreased to 400 MWh/h below their levels before the introduction of FBMC by the end of 2017. However, when controlling for changing market conditions in the years following the introduction of FBMC, we find that FBMC still has a persistent positive effect of around 1,150 MWh/h on hourly cross-border exchange volumes and of 2 €/MWh on price convergence. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that decreased commercial transmission capacity on critical branches might have contributed to the decline of the benefits over time. This paper is useful for policymakers, regulators, TSOs, and other stakeholders in light of the extension of FBMC to other regions as it is the target methodology for coupling market zones in the European single electricity market.

Suggested Citation

  • Ovaere, Marten & Kenis, Michiel & Van den Bergh, Kenneth & Bruninx, Kenneth & Delarue, Erik, 2023. "The effect of flow-based market coupling on cross-border exchange volumes and price convergence in Central Western European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:118:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323000178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106519
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Grafström, Jonas, 2023. "Spark of Transformation: The Impact of Electricity Prices on Europe's Industrial Landscape – Introducing the Green Industrial Location Attractiveness Index (GILAI)," Ratio Working Papers 369, The Ratio Institute.
    2. Samuli Honkapuro & Jasmin Jaanto & Salla Annala, 2023. "A Systematic Review of European Electricity Market Design Options," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-26, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flow-based market coupling; Regression discontinuity; Electricity transmission; Electricity prices; Congestion management; Power systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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