IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v53y2019icp310-330.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Horizontal industry relationships and return predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Schlag, Christian
  • Zeng, Kailin

Abstract

It has been documented that vertical customer–supplier links between industries are the basis for strong cross-sectional stock return predictability (Menzly and Ozbas, 2010). We show that robust predictability also arises from horizontal links between industries, i.e., from the fact that industries are competitors or offer products, which are substitutes for each other. These horizontally linked industries exhibit positively correlated fundamentals. The signal derived from this type of connectedness is the basis for significant alpha in sorted portfolio strategies, and informed investors take the related information into account when they form their portfolios. We thus provide evidence of return predictability based on a new type of economic links between industries not captured in previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Schlag, Christian & Zeng, Kailin, 2019. "Horizontal industry relationships and return predictability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 310-330.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:53:y:2019:i:c:p:310-330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.08.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539819300672
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.08.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    2. Hong, Harrison & Torous, Walter & Valkanov, Rossen, 2007. "Do industries lead stock markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 367-396, February.
    3. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    4. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    6. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini, 2008. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1977-2011, August.
    7. Lior Menzly & Oguzhan Ozbas, 2010. "Market Segmentation and Cross‐predictability of Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1555-1580, August.
    8. Badrinath, S G & Kale, Jayant R & Noe, Thomas H, 1995. "Of Shepherds, Sheep, and the Cross-autocorrelations in Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 401-430.
    9. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    12. repec:oup:revfin:v:29:y:2016:i:12:p:3354-3393. is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chen, Huaizhi & Cohen, Lauren & Lou, Dong, 2016. "Industry window dressing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 70650, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    15. Ang, Andrew, 2014. "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199959327.
    16. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    17. Gerard Hoberg & Gordon Phillips, 2016. "Text-Based Network Industries and Endogenous Product Differentiation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1423-1465.
    18. Hou, Kewei & Loh, Roger K., 2016. "Have we solved the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 167-194.
    19. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2003. "Limited attention, information disclosure, and financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 337-386, December.
    20. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, August.
    21. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    22. Huaizhi Chen & Lauren Cohen & Dong Lou, 2016. "Industry Window Dressing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(12), pages 3354-3393.
    23. Zhi Da & Qianqiu Liu & Ernst Schaumburg, 2014. "A Closer Look at the Short-Term Return Reversal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 658-674, March.
    24. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Ben Lahouel, Béchir & Khlifi, Foued, 2023. "Machine learning for US cross-industry return predictability under information uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Wang, Delu & Chen, Fan & Mao, Jinqi & Liu, Nannan & Rong, Fangyu, 2022. "Are the official national data credible? Empirical evidence from statistics quality evaluation of China's coal and its downstream industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire & Zeng, Kailin & Fangbiao, Liu & Fangyan, Li, 2021. "Modeling innovation efficiency, its micro-level drivers, and its impact on stock returns," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Zeng, Kailin & Tang, Ting & Liu, Fangbiao & Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire, 2022. "Innovation links, information diffusion, and return predictability: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Delu Wang & Xun Xue & Yadong Wang, 2021. "Overcapacity Risk of China’s Coal Power Industry: A Comprehensive Assessment and Driving Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schlag, Christian & Zeng, Kailin, 2019. "Horizontal industry relationships and return predictability," SAFE Working Paper Series 256, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Zeng, Kailin & Tang, Ting & Liu, Fangbiao & Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire, 2022. "Innovation links, information diffusion, and return predictability: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Lee, Charles M.C. & Sun, Stephen Teng & Wang, Rongfei & Zhang, Ran, 2019. "Technological links and predictable returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 76-96.
    4. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    5. Lee, Charles M.C. & Shi, Terrence Tianshuo & Sun, Stephen Teng & Zhang, Ran, 2024. "Production complementarity and information transmission across industries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    6. Zareei, Abalfazl, 2021. "Cross-momentum: Tracking idiosyncratic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 177-199.
    7. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    8. Yu, Miao & Hu, Xiaolu & Zhong, Angel, 2023. "Trade links and return predictability: The Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Wu, Yuliang & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2016. "Long-term industry reversals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 236-250.
    10. Hou, Kewei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," Working Paper Series 2017-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    11. Chenchen Li & Rui Li & Xundi Diao & Chongfeng Wu, 2020. "Market segmentation and supply‐chain predictability: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1531-1562, June.
    12. Ince, Baris, 2022. "Liquidity components: Commonality in liquidity, underreaction, and equity returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Cohen, Lauren & Lou, Dong, 2012. "Complicated firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 383-400.
    14. Ashish Agarwal & Alvin Chung Man Leung & Prabhudev Konana & Alok Kumar, 2017. "Cosearch Attention and Stock Return Predictability in Supply Chains," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 265-288, June.
    15. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    16. Cao, Zhengyu & Wang, Rundong & Xiao, Xinrong & Yin, Chengxi, 2023. "Disseminating information across connected firms — Analyst site visits can help," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 510-531.
    17. Du, Qianqian & Liang, Dawei & Chen, Zilin & Tu, Jun, 2022. "Concept links and return momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Ge, Yao & Qiao, Zheng & Zheng, Hao, 2023. "Local labor market and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    19. Nettayanun, Sampan, 2023. "Asset pricing in bull and bear markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Bozok, İhsan & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2022. "Firm centrality and limited attention," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 483-500.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:53:y:2019:i:c:p:310-330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.