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The effect of political communication on European financial markets during the sovereign debt crisis

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  • Conrad, Christian
  • Zumbach, Klaus Ulrich

Abstract

We quantify all statements by major European politicians reported by Reuters during the August 2011 to December 2011 period and show that political communication significantly affects the EUR–USD exchange rate as well as European stock and bond markets. Communication with respect to Italy induces the strongest market reactions. Financial markets consider the German bond market a safe haven.

Suggested Citation

  • Conrad, Christian & Zumbach, Klaus Ulrich, 2016. "The effect of political communication on European financial markets during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 209-214.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:39:y:2016:i:pb:p:209-214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.01.018
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    1. Beetsma, Roel & de Jong, Frank & Giuliodori, Massimo & Widijanto, Daniel, 2012. "Spread the News: How the Crisis Affected the Impact of News on the European Sovereign Bond Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 9043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Christian Conrad & Michael J. Lamla, 2010. "The High‐Frequency Response of the EUR‐USD Exchange Rate to ECB Communication," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1391-1417, October.
    3. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 509-541, March.
    4. Ehrmann, Michael & Osbat, Chiara & Stráský, Jan & Uusküla, Lenno, 2014. "The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 319-339.
    5. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 383-408, September.
    6. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
    7. Juha Kilponen & Helinä Laakkonen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2015. "Sovereign Risk, European Crisis-Resolution Policies, and Bond Spreads," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 285-323, March.
    8. Dieter Smeets & Marco Zimmermann, 2013. "Did the EU Summits Succeed in Convincing the Markets during the Recent Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1158-1177, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hirsch, Patrick & Feld, Lars P. & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Thomas, Tobias, 2024. "“Whatever It Takes!” How tonality of TV-news affected government bond yield spreads during the European debt crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Wolfinger, Julia & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Feld, Lars P. & Thomas, Tobias, 2018. "57 Channels (And Nothin On): Does TV-News on the Eurozone affect Government Bond Yield Spreads?," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181610, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Clancy, Daragh & Gabriele, Carmine & Žigraiová, Diana, 2022. "Sovereign bond market spillovers from crisis-time developments in Greece," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Hirsch, Patrick & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Feld, Lars P. & Thomas, Tobias, 2020. ""Whatever it takes!": How tonality of TV-news affects government bond yield spreads during crises," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 20/9, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
    5. Li, Kun, 2018. "Reaction to news in the Chinese stock market: A study on Xiong’an New Area Strategy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 36-38.
    6. Conrad, Christian & Stuermer, Karin, 2017. "On the economic determinants of optimal stock-bond portfolios: international evidence," Working Papers 0636, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    7. Philipp Mohl & Gilles Mourre & Sven Langedijk & Martijn Hoogeland, 2021. "Does Media Visibility Make EU Fiscal Rules More Effective?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 155, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political statements; High-frequency response; Austerity measures; Joint liability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General

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