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Modeling structural changes in the volatility process

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  • Frijns, Bart
  • Lehnert, Thorsten
  • Zwinkels, Remco C.J.

Abstract

GARCH-type models have been very successful in describing the volatility dynamics of financial return series for short periods of time. However, the time-varying behavior of investors, for example, may cause the structure of volatility to change and the assumption of stationarity is no longer plausible. To deal with this issue, the current paper proposes a conditional volatility model with time-varying coefficients based on a multinomial switching mechanism. By giving more weight to either the persistence or shock term in a GARCH model, conditional on their relative ability to forecast a benchmark volatility measure, the switching reinforces the persistent nature of the GARCH model. The estimation of this benchmark volatility targeting or BVT-GARCH model for Dow 30 stocks indicates that the switching model is able to outperform a number of relevant GARCH setups, both in- and out-of-sample, also without any informational advantages.

Suggested Citation

  • Frijns, Bart & Lehnert, Thorsten & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2011. "Modeling structural changes in the volatility process," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 522-532, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:522-532
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    Cited by:

    1. Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos, Alexandros G. & Menla Ali, Faek & Karoglou, Michail & Yfanti, Stavroula, 2014. "Modelling stock volatilities during financial crises: A time varying coefficient approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 113-128.
    2. Menelaos Karanasos & Alexandros Paraskevopoulos & Faek Menla Ali & Michail Karoglou & Stavroula Yfanti, 2014. "Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approach," Papers 1403.7179, arXiv.org.
    3. BOUSALAM, Issam & HAMZAOUI, Moustapha & ZOUHAYR, Otman, 2016. "Forecasting Daily Stock Volatility Using GARCH-CJ Type Models with Continuous and Jump Variation," MPRA Paper 69636, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Grassi, Stefano & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2015. "It's all about volatility of volatility: Evidence from a two-factor stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 62-78.
    5. Xiangjin B. Chen & Jiti Gao & Degui Li & Param Silvapulle, 2018. "Nonparametric Estimation and Forecasting for Time-Varying Coefficient Realized Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 88-100, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH Time varying coefficients Multinomial logit;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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