IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v55y2023ics156601412200084x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How to reduce the default contagion risk of intercorporate credit guarantee networks? Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Lv, Jiamin
  • Ben, Shenglin
  • Huang, Wenli
  • Xu, Yueling

Abstract

This study uses data from 2011 to 2018 for Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises to construct a weighted directed network to investigate the topology of intercorporate credit guarantee networks. Moreover, based on the DebtRank algorithm, it develops a novel GuaranteeRank model that includes three factors to comprehensively examine default risk contagion and systemic risk in various scenarios. The results demonstrate that (1) credit guarantee network has the topological characteristics of “scale-free” and “small world”; (2) default contagion and systemic risk increase significantly when the macro-external shock and company's off-balance-sheet debt exceed certain threshold values, while continuous bank credit support can notably reduce the risk; (3) credit guarantee network is “robust yet fragile”, such that targeted shocks increase systemic risk much more than do random shocks; (4) in addition to the prevalent “too big to fail” and “too central to fail” phenomena, a “too connected with the central to fail” phenomenon is also identified for the first time. Therefore, this study provides an important reference for regulators and financial institutions to reduce the default contagion risk of intercorporate credit guarantee networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Lv, Jiamin & Ben, Shenglin & Huang, Wenli & Xu, Yueling, 2023. "How to reduce the default contagion risk of intercorporate credit guarantee networks? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:55:y:2023:i:c:s156601412200084x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2022.100967
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S156601412200084X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ememar.2022.100967?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexandre, Michel & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Connaughton, Colm & Rodrigues, Francisco A., 2021. "The drivers of systemic risk in financial networks: a data-driven machine learning analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    2. Marco Bardoscia & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "DebtRank: A Microscopic Foundation for Shock Propagation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.
    3. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo, 2022. "NetVIX — A network volatility index of financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 594(C).
    4. Antonio Cabrales & Piero Gottardi & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Risk Sharing and Contagion in Networks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3086-3127.
    5. Maria Rosa Borges & Lauriano Ulica & Mariya Gubareva, 2020. "Systemic risk in the Angolan interbank payment system – a network approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(45), pages 4900-4912, September.
    6. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    7. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph Stiglitz, 2009. "Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(2), pages 195-212, November.
    8. Silva, Thiago Christiano & de Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2016. "Network structure analysis of the Brazilian interbank market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 130-152.
    9. Franklin Allen & Ana Babus & Elena Carletti, 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 16177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Avdjiev, S. & Giudici, P. & Spelta, A., 2019. "Measuring contagion risk in international banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 36-51.
    11. Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin & Alexandrova-Kabadjova, Biliana & Bravo-Benitez, Bernardo & Solórzano-Margain, Juan Pablo, 2014. "An empirical study of the Mexican banking system’s network and its implications for systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-265.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    13. Sui, Xin & Li, Liang & Chen, Xiaohui, 2020. "Risk contagion caused by interactions between credit and guarantee networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    14. Daron Acemoğlu & Giacomo Como & Fabio Fagnani & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2013. "Opinion Fluctuations and Disagreement in Social Networks," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 1-27, February.
    15. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    16. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    17. Wang, Lei & Li, Shouwei & Wu, Chaoqun, 2019. "Risk contagion in inter-firm credit guarantee network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 526(C).
    18. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
    19. Mingmin Yang & Haoyu Gao & Zhigang Cao & Xiaoguang Yang, 2014. "Intercorporate default contagion from industry failures: Stress testing on creditee linkage networks of China," Journal of Financial Engineering (JFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-23.
    20. Eboli, Mario, 2019. "A flow network analysis of direct balance-sheet contagion in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 205-233.
    21. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    22. Wenwei Li & Shenglin Ben & Ulrich Hommel & Sandra Paterlini & Jiefang Yu, 2019. "Default contagion and systemic risk in loan guarantee networks," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(S2), pages 1923-1946, November.
    23. Yao, Dongmin & Sun, Rong & Gao, Qiunan, 2022. "The network structure of the China bond market: Characteristics and explanations from trading factors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 598(C).
    24. Ling, Yu-Xiu & Xie, Chi & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2022. "Interconnectedness between convertible bonds and underlying stocks in the Chinese capital market: A multilayer network perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    25. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Network Structure of the Austrian Interbank Market," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 7, pages 77-87.
    26. L. C. G. Rogers & L. A. M. Veraart, 2013. "Failure and Rescue in an Interbank Network," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(4), pages 882-898, April.
    27. Philipp Lechner & Nadine Gatzert, 2018. "Determinants and value of enterprise risk management: empirical evidence from Germany," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(10), pages 867-887, July.
    28. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    29. Stefan Thurner & Sebastian Poledna, 2013. "DebtRank-transparency: Controlling systemic risk in financial networks," Papers 1301.6115, arXiv.org.
    30. Ding Ding & Liyan Han & Libo Yin, 2017. "Systemic risk and dynamics of contagion: a duplex inter-bank network," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 1435-1445, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cerqueti, Roy & Pampurini, Francesca & Quaranta, Anna Grazia & Storani, Saverio, 2024. "Risk transmission, systemic fragility of banks’ interacting customers and credit worthiness assessment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    2. Zhang, Wanjuan & Wang, Jing, 2024. "Credit risk contagion in complex companies network–Empirical research based on listed agricultural companies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 938-953.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morteza Alaeddini & Philippe Madiès & Paul J. Reaidy & Julie Dugdale, 2023. "Interbank money market concerns and actors’ strategies—A systematic review of 21st century literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 573-654, April.
    2. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Cuba, Walter & Rodriguez-Martinez, Anahi & Chavez, Diego A. & Caccioli, Fabio & Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin, 2021. "A network characterization of the interbank exposures in Peru," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(3).
    4. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    5. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2017. "Monitoring vulnerability and impact diffusion in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 109-135.
    6. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    7. Elliott, Matthew & Georg, Co-Pierre & Hazell, Jonathon, 2021. "Systemic risk shifting in financial networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Accominotti, Olivier & Lucena-Piquero, Delio & Ugolini, Stefano, 2023. "Intermediaries’ substitutability and financial network resilience: A hyperstructure approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. in 't Veld, Daan & van der Leij, Marco & Hommes, Cars, 2020. "The formation of a core-periphery structure in heterogeneous financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Codd, Adam Brinley & Hill, John, 2019. "Forward-looking solvency contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2016. "Contagion in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Alexandre, Michel & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Michalak, Krzysztof & Rodrigues, Francisco Aparecido, 2023. "Does the default pecking order impact systemic risk? Evidence from Brazilian data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(3), pages 1379-1391.
    13. Alexandre, Michel & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Connaughton, Colm & Rodrigues, Francisco A., 2021. "The drivers of systemic risk in financial networks: a data-driven machine learning analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    14. Deng, Yang & Zhang, Ziqing & Zhu, Li, 2021. "A model-based index for systemic risk contribution measurement in financial networks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 35-48.
    15. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Markets," Working Papers 15-21, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    16. Kanno, Masayasu, 2020. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk in the US CDS market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Maryam Farboodi, 2014. "Intermediation and Voluntary Exposure to Counterparty Risk," 2014 Meeting Papers 365, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Barnett, William A. & Wang, Xue & Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Hierarchical contagions in the interdependent financial network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    19. Qian, Qian & Chao, Xiangrui & Feng, Hairong, 2023. "Internal or external control? How to respond to credit risk contagion in complex enterprises network," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    20. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Guerra, Solange Maria, 2017. "Why do vulnerability cycles matter in financial networks?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 592-606.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:55:y:2023:i:c:s156601412200084x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.