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The overconfident and optimistic price-setting newsvendor

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  • Kirshner, Samuel Nathan
  • Shao, Lusheng

Abstract

Overconfidence and optimism are behavioral biases known to impact newsvendor ordering decisions. We develop a model that accounts for both effects by applying a probability weighting function from Prospect Theory (PT). We apply the model to a price-setting newsvendor problem with reference effects. Contrary to previous work claiming that increased optimism leads a newsvendor to adopt a high margin and low volume strategy, we find that greater optimism typically results in lower margins and higher inventory, aligning with the more intuitive interpretation of optimism. In addition, we find that overconfidence and regret have similar impacts on both inventory levels and pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirshner, Samuel Nathan & Shao, Lusheng, 2019. "The overconfident and optimistic price-setting newsvendor," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 166-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:277:y:2019:i:1:p:166-173
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.02.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Khosrowabadi, Naghmeh & Hoberg, Kai & Imdahl, Christina, 2022. "Evaluating human behaviour in response to AI recommendations for judgemental forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1151-1167.
    3. Mingyang Zhang & Xufeng Yang & Taichiu Edwin Cheng & Chen Chang, 2022. "Inventory Management of Perishable Goods with Overconfident Retailers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-14, May.
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    5. Liu, Jie & Yang, Yang & Yu, Yugang, 2021. "Ordering and interest rate strategies in platform finance with an overconfident and commerce retailer," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Zuzana Brokesova & Cary Deck & Jana Peliova, 2022. "Pull-to-center is not just for newsvendors," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Xu, Xianhao & Chen, Cheng & Zou, Bipan & Wang, Hongwei & Li, Zhiwen, 2023. "Shipping before order making: Optimal shipping quantity and pricing decisions under uncertain demand," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Liu, Zhongyi & Li, Mengyu & Lei, Ying & Zhai, Xin, 2022. "A joint strategy based on ordering and insurance for mitigating the effects of supply chain disruption on risk-averse firms," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    9. Hao, Zhongyuan & Li, Juan & Cai, Jinling, 2023. "Allocation of inventory responsibilities in overconfident supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(1), pages 207-221.
    10. Chen, Xin & Xu, Weijun & Wu, Meng, 2024. "Newsvendor overconfidence and advertising," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 661-675.
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    15. Andrew Butters, R., 2019. "On demand uncertainty in the newsvendor model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

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