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Real option valuation for reserve capacity

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  • Moriarty, John
  • Palczewski, Jan

Abstract

Motivated by the potential use of electricity storage to smooth fluctuations in supply and demand, we study the problem of writing American-type call options when the holder’s exercise strategy is of threshold type (so that the time of exercise is known, but random). The writer must provide physical cover by buying and storing the asset before selling the option. We optimise the writer’s strategy for a single option and for an infinite sequence of options, these two strategies being different. The latter is motivated by the lifetime valuation of an energy storage unit when used as reserve capacity in a power system. Our stochastic process is a Brownian motion representing the real-time system imbalance, and which we rescale to represent an imbalance price. The single option leads to an optimal stopping problem in which the principle of smooth fit may be violated and the stopping region may be disconnected. The lifetime analysis uses techniques and results for the single option to construct a certain fixed point characterising the value function.

Suggested Citation

  • Moriarty, John & Palczewski, Jan, 2017. "Real option valuation for reserve capacity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(1), pages 251-260.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:257:y:2017:i:1:p:251-260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.07.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Johnson, Paul & Szabó, Dávid Zoltán & Duck, Peter, 2024. "Optimal trading with regime switching: Numerical and analytic techniques applied to valuing storage in an electricity balancing market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 319(2), pages 611-624.
    2. Gonzalez, Jhonny & Moriarty, John & Palczewski, Jan, 2017. "Bayesian calibration and number of jump components in electricity spot price models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 375-388.
    3. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.
    4. Szabó, Dávid Zoltán & Duck, Peter & Johnson, Paul, 2020. "Optimal trading of imbalance options for power systems using an energy storage device," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 3-22.
    5. John Moriarty & Jan Palczewski, 2019. "Imbalance Market Real Options and the Valuation of Storage in Future Energy Systems," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-30, April.

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