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The paradox effects of uncertainty and flexibility on investment in renewables under governmental support

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  • Welling, Andreas

Abstract

Given that companies have the flexibility to decide about size and timing of a renewable electricity investment, the existence of four paradox effects is proven: Only the type but not the amount of governmental support has an influence on the optimal capacity of a renewable electricity generating system. A decrease of governmental support over time may result in higher capacities of renewables installed on an industry level, at least on the short term. Likewise, higher uncertainty may encourage an expansion of these capacities. In contrast, technological progress may hamper the expansion of capacities. Finally, these four paradox effects are exemplified in a Germany-based case study regarding a photovoltaic project.

Suggested Citation

  • Welling, Andreas, 2016. "The paradox effects of uncertainty and flexibility on investment in renewables under governmental support," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 1016-1028.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:251:y:2016:i:3:p:1016-1028
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.027
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiaping Xie & Lihong Wei & Weisi Zhang & Yu Xia & Jing Li, 2019. "A Responsive Pricing Grid Operator Sourcing from Competing Generators under Uncertain Supply and Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-30, July.
    2. Lukas, Elmar & Thiergart, Sascha, 2019. "The interaction of debt financing, cash grants and the optimal investment policy under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 284-299.
    3. Yao, Xing & Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei & Zhang, Xian, 2020. "Optimization of dynamic incentive for the deployment of carbon dioxide removal technology: A nonlinear dynamic approach combined with real options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    5. Lotte Yanore & Jaap Sok & Alfons Oude Lansink, 2024. "Do Dutch farmers invest in expansion despite increased policy uncertainty? A participatory Bayesian network approach," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 93-115, January.
    6. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    7. Andreas Welling, 2017. "Green Finance: Recent developments, characteristics and important actors," FEMM Working Papers 170002, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    8. Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea & Baschieri, Davide, 2022. "Impact of financing and payout policy on the economic profitability of solar photovoltaic plants," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    9. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    10. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Panapakidis, Ioannis P., 2017. "Impact of the penetration of renewables on flexibility needs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 360-369.
    11. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.
    12. Briest, Gordon & Lauven, Lars-Peter & Kupfer, Stefan & Lukas, Elmar, 2022. "Leaving well-worn paths: Reversal of the investment-uncertainty relationship and flexible biogas plant operation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1162-1176.
    13. Dezhi Zhang & Jiehui Jiang & Shuangyan Li & Xiamiao Li & Qingwen Zhan, 2017. "Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.
    14. Pineda, Salvador & Boomsma, Trine K. & Wogrin, Sonja, 2018. "Renewable generation expansion under different support schemes: A stochastic equilibrium approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(3), pages 1086-1099.

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