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A new Mixture model for the estimation of credit card Exposure at Default

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  • Leow, Mindy
  • Crook, Jonathan

Abstract

Using a large portfolio of historical observations on defaulted loans, we estimate Exposure at Default at the level of the obligor by estimating the outstanding balance of an account, not only at the time of default, but at any time over the entire loan period. We theorize that the outstanding balance on a credit card account at any time during the loan is a function of the spending by the borrower and is also subject to the credit limit imposed by the card issuer. The predicted value is modelled as a weighted average of the estimated balance and limit, with weights depending on how likely the borrower is to have a balance greater than the limit. The weights are estimated using a discrete-time repeated events survival model to predict the probability of an account having a balance greater than its limit. The expected balance and expected limit are estimated using two panel models with random effects. We are able to get predictions which, overall, are more accurate for outstanding balance, not only at the time of default, but at any time over the entire default loan period, than any other particular technique in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Leow, Mindy & Crook, Jonathan, 2016. "A new Mixture model for the estimation of credit card Exposure at Default," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 487-497.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:249:y:2016:i:2:p:487-497
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.10.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriel Jiménez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesus Saurina, 2009. "Empirical Analysis of Corporate Credit Lines," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5069-5098, December.
    2. L C Thomas, 2010. "Consumer finance: challenges for operational research," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(1), pages 41-52, January.
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    4. David M. Drukker, 2003. "Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 168-177, June.
    5. Leow, Mindy & Crook, Jonathan, 2014. "Intensity models and transition probabilities for credit card loan delinquencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(2), pages 685-694.
    6. Gregorio Moral, 2006. "EAD Estimates for Facilities with Explicit Limits," Springer Books, in: Bernd Engelmann & Robert Rauhmeier (ed.), The Basel II Risk Parameters, chapter 0, pages 197-242, Springer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Ranganai Matenda & Mabutho Sibanda & Eriyoti Chikodza & Victor Gumbo, 2021. "Determinants of corporate exposure at default under distressed economic and financial conditions in a developing economy: the case of Zimbabwe," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 123-149, June.
    2. Tang, Qihe & Tang, Zhaofeng & Yang, Yang, 2019. "Sharp asymptotics for large portfolio losses under extreme risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 710-722.
    3. Shan Luo & Anthony Murphy, 2020. "Understanding the Exposure at Default Risk of Commercial Real Estate Construction and Land Development Loans," Working Papers 2007, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Li, Aimin & Li, Zhiyong & Bellotti, Anthony, 2023. "Predicting loss given default of unsecured consumer loans with time-varying survival scores," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Gürtler, Marc & Hibbeln, Martin Thomas & Usselmann, Piet, 2018. "Exposure at default modeling – A theoretical and empirical assessment of estimation approaches and parameter choice," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 176-188.
    6. Wattanawongwan, Suttisak & Mues, Christophe & Okhrati, Ramin & Choudhry, Taufiq & So, Mee Chi, 2023. "A mixture model for credit card exposure at default using the GAMLSS framework," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 503-518.
    7. Jennifer Betz & Maximilian Nagl & Daniel Rösch, 2022. "Credit line exposure at default modelling using Bayesian mixed effect quantile regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 2035-2072, October.
    8. Korangi, Kamesh & Mues, Christophe & Bravo, Cristián, 2023. "A transformer-based model for default prediction in mid-cap corporate markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 306-320.
    9. Wattanawongwan, Suttisak & Mues, Christophe & Okhrati, Ramin & Choudhry, Taufiq & So, Mee Chi, 2023. "Modelling credit card exposure at default using vine copula quantile regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 387-399.

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