IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v62y2013icp114-129.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cheap money and risk taking: Opacity versus fundamental risk

Author

Listed:
  • Drees, Burkhard
  • Eckwert, Bernhard
  • Várdy, Felix

Abstract

We explore the effect of interest rates on risk taking and find that it depends on the type of risk involved. In a Bayesian setting, investments can be risky either because payoff-relevant signals are noisy or because the dispersion of the prior is high. While both types of risk contribute symmetrically to the overall riskiness of an investment project, we show that changes in interest rates affect risk taking in these two types of risk in opposite directions. This makes the net effect of interest rates on risk taking—as measured by the average riskiness of financed projects—necessarily ambiguous and dependent on the sources of risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Drees, Burkhard & Eckwert, Bernhard & Várdy, Felix, 2013. "Cheap money and risk taking: Opacity versus fundamental risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 114-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:114-129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.05.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292113000688
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.05.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viaene, Jean-Marie & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1998. "The Behavior of Competitive Exporting Firms under Multiple Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 591-609, August.
    2. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 11-05, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    3. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    4. Cociuba, Simona E. & Shukayev, Malik & Ueberfeldt, Alexander, 2016. "Collateralized borrowing and risk taking at low interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 62-83.
    5. Kit, Pong Wong, 1997. "On the determinants of bank interest margins under credit and interest rate risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 251-271, February.
    6. Leonardo Gambacorta, 2009. "Monetary policy and the risk-taking channel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    7. Paul A. Samuelson, 1970. "The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances and Higher Moments," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(4), pages 537-542.
    8. Peter C. Fishburn & R. Burr Porter, 1976. "Optimal Portfolios with One Safe and One Risky Asset: Effects of Changes in Rate of Return and Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1064-1073, June.
    9. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2006. "Lending Booms and Lending Standards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2511-2546, October.
    10. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    11. Adrian, Tobias & Song Shin, Hyun, 2010. "Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 601-650, Elsevier.
    12. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Bank Risk-Taking," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/09, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    14. Juan-JosÈ Ganuza & JosÈ S. Penalva, 2010. "Signal Orderings Based on Dispersion and the Supply of Private Information in Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 1007-1030, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Yuanyuan & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2017. "Endogenous information revelation in a competitive credit market and credit crunch," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 127-141.
    2. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Gelos, Gaston & Melgar, Natalia, 2018. "Country transparency and the global transmission of financial shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 56-72.
    3. Boucekkine, Raouf & Kazuo, Nishimura & Venditti, Alain, 2017. "Introduction to international financial markets and banking systems crises," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 87-91.
    4. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2013. "“Leaning against the wind” and the timing of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 179-194.
    5. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2012. "Excessive bank risk taking and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1457, European Central Bank.
    6. Cociuba, Simona E. & Shukayev, Malik & Ueberfeldt, Alexander, 2016. "Collateralized borrowing and risk taking at low interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 62-83.
    7. Colletaz, Gilbert & Levieuge, Grégory & Popescu, Alexandra, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 165-184.
    8. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2019. "Will macroprudential policy counteract monetary policy’s effects on financial stability?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 65-75.
    9. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2013. "“Leaning against the wind” and the timing of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 179-194.
    10. Agur, Itai, 2019. "Monetary and macroprudential policy coordination among multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 192-209.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2013. "“Leaning against the wind” and the timing of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 179-194.
    2. Colletaz, Gilbert & Levieuge, Grégory & Popescu, Alexandra, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 165-184.
    3. Bernhard Eckwert & Burkhard Drees & Felix Vardy, 2011. "Cheap Money and Risk Taking: Opacity versus Underlying Risk," EcoMod2011 2782, EcoMod.
    4. Bongiovanni, Alessio & Reghezza, Alessio & Santamaria, Riccardo & Williams, Jonathan, 2021. "Do negative interest rates affect bank risk-taking?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 350-364.
    5. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Dong, Yan & Wang, Cong, 2021. "The effect of stimulus policy on lending behavior and bank risk: Evidence from the Chinese banking sector," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    7. Choi, Dong Beom & Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2021. "Watering a lemon tree: Heterogeneous risk taking and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    8. Brana, Sophie & Campmas, Alexandra & Lapteacru, Ion, 2019. "(Un)Conventional monetary policy and bank risk-taking: A nonlinear relationship," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 576-593.
    9. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    10. Memmel Christoph & Seymen Atılım & Teichert Max, 2018. "Banks’ Interest Rate Risk and Search for Yield: A Theoretical Rationale and Some Empirical Evidence," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 330-350, August.
    11. Hau, Harald & Lai, Sandy, 2016. "Asset allocation and monetary policy: Evidence from the eurozone," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 309-329.
    12. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "An analysis of involuntary excess reserves, monetary policy and risk-taking behaviour of Chinese Banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 63-72.
    13. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Agur, Itai, 2013. "Multiple bank regulators and risk taking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 259-268.
    15. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2019. "Will macroprudential policy counteract monetary policy’s effects on financial stability?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 65-75.
    16. Segev, Nimrod, 2020. "Identifying the risk-Taking channel of monetary transmission and the connection to economic activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2012. "Do bank characteristics influence the effect of monetary policy on bank risk?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 220-222.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Avalos, Fernando & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2023. "Is bank resilience affected by unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    20. Carlos González‐Aguado & Javier Suarez, 2015. "Interest Rates and Credit Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 445-480, March.
    21. Ekin Ayse Ozsuca & Elif Akbostanci, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Risk Taking Channel of Monetary Policy in Turkey," ERC Working Papers 1208, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2012.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk taking; Interest rates; Opacity; Bayesian updating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:114-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.