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Why aren't developed countries saving?

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  • Dobrescu, Loretti I.
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J.
  • Motta, Alberto

Abstract

National saving rates differ enormously across developed countries. But these differences obscure a common trend, namely a dramatic decline over time. France and Italy, for example, saved over 23% and 19% of national income in 1970, but only 9% and 4% respectively in 2008. Japan saved almost 33% in 1970, but only 7% in 2008. And the U.S. saved around 11% in 1970, but only 1% in 2008. What explains these international and intertemporal differences? Is it demographics, government spending, productivity growth or preferences?

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Loretti I. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Motta, Alberto, 2012. "Why aren't developed countries saving?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1261-1275.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:56:y:2012:i:6:p:1261-1275
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.04.003
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    11. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-1057, September.
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    13. Jerry Green & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2006. "On the General Relativity of Fiscal Language," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-036, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    14. Jonsson, Gunnar & Klein, Paul, 1996. "Stochastic fiscal policy and the Swedish business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 245-268, October.
    15. Kaiji Chen & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu, 2007. "The Japanese saving rate between 1960 and 2000: productivity, policy changes, and demographics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(1), pages 87-104, July.
    16. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    17. Altonji, Joseph G & Hayashi, Fumio & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1997. "Parental Altruism and Inter Vivos Transfers: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1121-1166, December.
    18. Gramlich, Edward M, 1989. "Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 23-35, Spring.
    19. Boskin, Michael J. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1985. "Public debt and United States saving: A new test of the neutrality hypothesis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 55-86, January.
    20. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, June.
    21. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1989. "What Determines Savings?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262611872, April.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. [経済]先進国の貯蓄率の低下は刹那主義の蔓延のせい？
      by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-08-03 12:00:00
    2. Why aren't developed countries saving?
      by UDADISI in UDADISI on 2012-08-02 06:09:00
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      by UDADISI in UDADISI on 2012-12-14 04:44:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gergely Varga & János Vincze, 2019. "Saver Types: An Evolutionary-Adaptive Approach," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 41(2), pages 263-287, June.
    2. Carbone, Enrica & Duffy, John, 2014. "Lifecycle consumption plans, social learning and external habits: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 413-427.
    3. János Vincze & Gergely Varga, 2015. "Ants and crickets: arbitrary saving rates in an agent-based model with infinitely lived-agents," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1504, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    4. Duy-Tung Bui, 2018. "Fiscal policy and national saving in emerging Asia: challenge or opportunity?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 305-322, August.
    5. Bucciol, Alessandro & Veronesi, Marcella, 2014. "Teaching children to save: What is the best strategy for lifetime savings?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Yigit Aydede, 2010. "Generational selfishness and social security: a time-inconsistency problem in parametric reforms of PAYG," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 179-190.
    7. Yigit Aydede, 2010. "Generational selfishness and social security: a time‐inconsistency problem in parametric reforms of PAYG," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 179-190.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National saving; Discount factor; Simulated method of moments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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