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Resurrecting the weak credibility hypothesis in models of exchange-rate-based stabilization

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  • Buffie, Edward F.
  • Atolia, Manoj

Abstract

We analyze how weak credibility affects the volatility of consumption spending in a model of exchange-rate-based stabilization that allows for both durable and nondurable goods. The inclusion of durables greatly improves the explanatory power of the weak credibility hypothesis. The hypothesis can account for the main qualitative properties of the boom–bust cycle provided the elasticity of durables expenditure with respect to Tobin's q is greater than the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Moreover, the quantitative effects are very large. In numerical simulations based on conservative assumptions about the expenditure share of durables (20%) and wealth effects (none), aggregate consumption increases 17–22% and the real exchange rate appreciates 24–26% when the crawl decreases from 100% to zero for 3 years. In variants of the model that incorporate supply effects, the consumption boom is equally strong but appreciation of the real exchange rate rises to 30–40%.

Suggested Citation

  • Buffie, Edward F. & Atolia, Manoj, 2012. "Resurrecting the weak credibility hypothesis in models of exchange-rate-based stabilization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 361-372.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:56:y:2012:i:3:p:361-372
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.10.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2016. "From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation: Focusing on Expectations and Liquidity Disarray Since WWII," NBER Working Papers 22535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Aytac, Ozlem, 2015. "A model of a heterodox exchange rate based stabilization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 100-117.
    3. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchors Away: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine “Good” Monetary Policy," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-021, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2007. "Interest Rate Rules, Inflation Stabilization, and Imperfect Credibility: The Small Open Economy Case," NBER Working Papers 13177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eric M. Leeper, 2011. "Anchors Aweigh: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine “Good” Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 11, pages 411-453, Central Bank of Chile.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credibility; Exchange-rate-based stabilization; Durables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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