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Modeling conflict impact and postconflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen

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  • Mukashov, Askar
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Engelke, Wilfried
  • Wiebelt, Manfred

Abstract

Evidence-based planning for countries in the midst of conflict is often constrained by missing data and the lack of appropriate analytical tools. To overcome these constraints, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model combined with systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) to investigate the impact of conflict on Yemen’s economy and to analyze potential pathways for recovery after the conflict finally ends. Our results suggest that conflict-related disruptions in agriculture and mining sent devastating shockwaves throughout the economy, accounting for the lion’s share of the country’s economic losses and increase in poverty. Our results suggest that supporting agriculture should take the highest priority, as reconstruction of that sector, followed by the mining sector, has the largest positive impact on growth and poverty reduction. However, our estimates also suggest that the restoration of its prewar economic status quo is unlikely. In addition to serving as a direct input for Yemen’s reconstruction planning, our paper also demonstrates the usefulness of overarching models for conflict and postconflict economic assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Mukashov, Askar & Breisinger, Clemens & Engelke, Wilfried & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2022. "Modeling conflict impact and postconflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:46:y:2022:i:1:s0939362522000024
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100940
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Economy-wide modeling; Middle East; Reconstruction; Uncertainty; Yemen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

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