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A computable general equilibrium model of international sanctions in Iran

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  • Mohammad Reza Gharibnavaz
  • Robert Waschik

Abstract

We detail recent international sanctions against the Iranian economy and its government imposed by a subset of developed countries. The effects of these sanctions on the Iranian economy in general and upon upper and lower†income rural and urban Iranian households, as well as the Iranian government, are modelled using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We supplement the Global Trade Analysis Project 8 data set using income and expenditure shares from the Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditure Survey from the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI). The model is calibrated to simulate the effects of international sanctions as closely as possible. We use endogenous trade taxes to simulate the effects of sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports and Iranian imports of petroleum products, metal products and motor vehicles. Our study finds that international sanctions reduced aggregate Iranian welfare by 14%–15%. Rural households in Iran suffered welfare losses which were almost double those experienced by urban households, and the poorest urban and rural households experienced the largest welfare losses, in the order of 5%–10%. But the government of Iran sees a decrease in real revenue of 40%–50%, due to the large negative effect of sanctions on the Iranian oil sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Reza Gharibnavaz & Robert Waschik, 2018. "A computable general equilibrium model of international sanctions in Iran," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 287-307, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:41:y:2018:i:1:p:287-307
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12528
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    Cited by:

    1. Iman Cheratian & Saleh Goltabar & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Survival Strategies Under Sanctions: Firm-Level Evidence from Iran," Working Papers 1569, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Aug 2022.
    2. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2022. "Do sanctions work in a crypto world? The impact of the removal of Russian Banks from SWIFT on Remittances," Working Papers hal-03599089, HAL.
    3. Firat Demir & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2022. "Gendered effects of sanctions on manufacturing employment: Evidence from Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2040-2069, November.
    4. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2022. "Quantifying the Impacts of Sanctions Following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine," GRIPS Discussion Papers 22-06, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    5. Xiaoxiao Hu & Ling He & Qi Cui, 2021. "How Do International Conflicts Impact China’s Energy Security and Economic Growth? A Case Study of the US Economic Sanctions on Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Mukashov, Askar & Breisinger, Clemens & Engelke, Wilfried & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2022. "Modeling conflict impact and postconflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    7. Ali Dadpay & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2021. "Political Agreements and Exporting Activities: An Empirical Assessment of the Effects of the JCPOA Agreement on Iran’s Exports," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 147-180, March.

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