Potential distribution of oak forests in the central Himalayas and implications for future ecosystem services supply to rural communities

Oak forests are an ecologically and socio-economically valuable late-successional forest formation of central Himalaya. We used niche modelling to identify the potential distribution of oak forests in Uttarakhand, India and estimated the possible changes in the availability of ecosystem services (ES) from oak forests in a scenario without human disturbance. Quantification of provisioning ES and carbon density was done by field-based household and vegetation assessments respectively. Carbon density was estimated using allometric equations provided by the Forest Survey of India. We found that the region has a much higher potential to support oak than its current distribution. In a no-disturbance scenario, under current climatic conditions, we estimate a 170.6% increase (current area 14741 ha, potential area 39899 ha) in the coverage of dense oak forests which would result in a 60.3% increase in carbon stock, a 90.69% increase in non-wood forest products, a 75.04% increase in fuelwood and fodder, and a 54.83% increase in the supply of small diameter wood. In order to increase the provision of ES in the study area the best-suited course of action would be to support the succession of current pine, pine-oak, and open-oak forests to late-successional dense-oak forest community.