IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecoser/v25y2017icp56-68.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change

Author

Listed:
  • Martinez-Harms, Maria Jose
  • Bryan, Brett A.
  • Figueroa, Eugenio
  • Pliscoff, Patricio
  • Runting, Rebecca K.
  • Wilson, Kerrie A.

Abstract

Scenarios provide a platform to explore the provision of ecosystem services under global change. Despite their relevance to land-use policy, there is a paucity of such assessments, particularly in developing countries. Central Chile provides a good example from the Latin American realm as the region has experienced rapid transformation from natural landscapes to urbanization and agricultural development. Local experts from Central Chile identified climate change, urbanization, and fire regimes as key drivers of change. Scenarios depicting plausible future trajectories of change were developed to assess the combined effects on carbon storage, wine production, and scenic beauty for the year 2050. Across the region, the action of the drivers reduced the total amount of carbon storage (by 85%) and wine production (by 52%) compared with a baseline scenario, with minor changes incurred for scenic beauty. The carbon storage and wine production had declined by 90% and scenic beauty by 28% when the reaction to changed fire regimes was also taken into account. The cumulative outcomes of climate change and urbanization are likely to place substantial pressures on ecosystem services in Central Chile by mid-century, revealing the need for stronger planning regulations to manage land-use change.

Suggested Citation

  • Martinez-Harms, Maria Jose & Bryan, Brett A. & Figueroa, Eugenio & Pliscoff, Patricio & Runting, Rebecca K. & Wilson, Kerrie A., 2017. "Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 56-68.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:25:y:2017:i:c:p:56-68
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.03.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041616302376
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.03.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caparrós, Alejandro & Ovando, Paola & Oviedo, José L. & Campos, Pablo, 2011. "Accounting for carbon in avoided degradation and reforestation programmes in Mediterranean forests," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 405-428, August.
    2. Cohen, Barney, 2004. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-51, January.
    3. Mendoza-González, G. & Martínez, M.L. & Lithgow, D. & Pérez-Maqueo, O. & Simonin, P., 2012. "Land use change and its effects on the value of ecosystem services along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 23-32.
    4. M. Shaw & Linwood Pendleton & D. Cameron & Belinda Morris & Dominique Bachelet & Kirk Klausmeyer & Jason MacKenzie & David Conklin & Gregrory Bratman & James Lenihan & Erik Haunreiter & Christopher Da, 2011. "The impact of climate change on California’s ecosystem services," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 465-484, December.
    5. Georgina Mace, 2013. "Global change: Ecology must evolve," Nature, Nature, vol. 503(7475), pages 191-192, November.
    6. Pliscoff, Patricio & Luebert, Federico & Hilger, Hartmut H. & Guisan, Antoine, 2014. "Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: A test with plants in an arid environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 288(C), pages 166-177.
    7. Bryan, Brett Anthony & Crossman, Neville David, 2013. "Impact of multiple interacting financial incentives on land use change and the supply of ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 60-72.
    8. U. Thara Sinivasan, 2010. "Economics of climate change: risk and responsibility by world region," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 298-316, May.
    9. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mengqi Wang & Guoping Lei, 2023. "Relative and Cumulative Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Underwood, Emma C. & Hollander, Allan D. & Safford, Hugh D. & Kim, John B. & Srivastava, Lorie & Drapek, Ray J., 2019. "The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in southern California," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    3. Montoya, Daniel & Gaba, Sabrina & de Mazancourt, Claire & Bretagnolle, Vincent & Loreau, Michel, 2020. "Reconciling biodiversity conservation, food production and farmers’ demand in agricultural landscapes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 416(C).
    4. Kocur-Bera, Katarzyna, 2018. "A safe space of rural areas in the context of the occurrence of extreme weather events—A case study covering a part of the Euroregion Baltic," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 518-529.
    5. Taboada, Angela & García-Llamas, Paula & Fernández-Guisuraga, José Manuel & Calvo, Leonor, 2021. "Wildfires impact on ecosystem service delivery in fire-prone maritime pine-dominated forests," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Jie Xu & Pengnan Xiao, 2022. "A Bibliometric Analysis on the Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services: Current Status, Progress, and Future Directions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Mayer, Alex & Jones, Kelly & Hunt, David & Manson, Robert & Carter Berry, Z. & Asbjornsen, Heidi & Wright, Timothy Max & Salcone, Jacob & Lopez Ramirez, Sergio & Ávila-Foucat, Sophie & Von Thaden Ugal, 2022. "Assessing ecosystem service outcomes from payments for hydrological services programs in Veracruz, Mexico: Future deforestation threats and spatial targeting," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo & Bryan, Brett A. & Schwabe, Kurt A. & Connor, Jeffery D. & Law, Elizabeth A. & Nolan, Martin & Sánchez, José J., 2019. "Projected social costs of CO2 emissions from forest losses far exceed the sequestration benefits of forest gains under global change," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-1.
    9. César Benavidez-Silva & Magdalena Jensen & Patricio Pliscoff, 2021. "Future Scenarios for Land Use in Chile: Identifying Drivers of Change and Impacts over Protected Area System," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    10. Wang, Yahui & Dai, Erfu & Yin, Le & Ma, Liang, 2018. "Land use/land cover change and the effects on ecosystem services in the Hengduan Mountain region, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 34(PA), pages 55-67.
    11. Sandhu, Harpinder & Clarke, Beverley & Baring, Ryan & Anderson, Sharolyn & Fisk, Claire & Dittmann, Sabine & Walker, Stewart & Sutton, Paul & Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert, 2018. "Scenario planning including ecosystem services for a coastal region in South Australia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PA), pages 194-207.
    12. Zhang, Zimo & Peng, Jian & Xu, Zihan & Wang, Xiaoyu & Meersmans, Jeroen, 2021. "Ecosystem services supply and demand response to urbanization: A case study of the Pearl River Delta, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Felipe Encinas & Carlos Marmolejo-Duarte & Carlos Aguirre-Nuñez & Francisco Vergara-Perucich, 2020. "When Residential Energy Labeling Becomes Irrelevant: Sustainability vs. Profitability in the Liberalized Chilean Property Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-17, November.
    14. Cui, Fengqi & Tang, Haiping & Zhang, Qin & Wang, Bojie & Dai, Luwei, 2019. "Integrating ecosystem services supply and demand into optimized management at different scales: A case study in Hulunbuir, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    15. Raviv, Orna & Tchetchik, Anat & Lotan, Alon & Izhaki, Ido & Zemah Shamir, Shiri, 2021. "Direct and indirect valuation of air-quality regulation service as reflected in the preferences towards distinct types of landscape in a biosphere reserve," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo & Bryan, Brett A. & Schwabe, Kurt A. & Connor, Jeffery D. & Law, Elizabeth A. & Nolan, Martin & Sánchez, José J., 2019. "Projected social costs of CO2 emissions from forest losses far exceed the sequestration benefits of forest gains under global change," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
    3. Underwood, Emma C. & Hollander, Allan D. & Safford, Hugh D. & Kim, John B. & Srivastava, Lorie & Drapek, Ray J., 2019. "The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in southern California," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    6. Smith, Helen F. & Sullivan, Caroline A., 2014. "Ecosystem services within agricultural landscapes—Farmers' perceptions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 72-80.
    7. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    8. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    9. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    10. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Wang, Bo & Li, Fan & Feng, Shuyi & Shen, Tong, 2020. "Transfer of development rights, farmland preservation, and economic growth: a case study of Chongqing’s land quotas trading program," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    13. Zhang, Quanzhong & Wei, Haiyan & Liu, Jing & Zhao, Zefang & Ran, Qiao & Gu, Wei, 2021. "A Bayesian network with fuzzy mathematics for species habitat suitability analysis: A case with limited Angelica sinensis (Oliv.) Diels data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 450(C).
    14. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    15. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    16. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    19. Fikri Zul Fahmi, 2015. "Regional Distribution of Creative and Cultural Industries in Indonesia," ERSA conference papers ersa15p914, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Marcinkowski, Paweł & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2024. "Future changes in crop yield over Poland driven by climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen stress," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:25:y:2017:i:c:p:56-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecosystem-services .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.