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Delta-method inference for a class of set-identified SVARs

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  • Gafarov, Bulat
  • Meier, Matthias
  • Montiel Olea, José Luis

Abstract

We study vector autoregressions that impose equality and/or inequality restrictions to set-identify the dynamic responses to a single structural shock. We make three contributions. First, we present an algorithm to compute the largest and smallest value that an impulse-response coefficient can attain over its identified set. Second, we provide conditions under which these largest and smallest values are directionally differentiable functions of the model’s reduced-form parameters. Third, we propose a delta-method approach to conduct inference about the structural impulse-response coefficients. We use our results to assess the effects of the announcement of the Quantitative Easing program in August 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Gafarov, Bulat & Meier, Matthias & Montiel Olea, José Luis, 2018. "Delta-method inference for a class of set-identified SVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 316-327.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:203:y:2018:i:2:p:316-327
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.12.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Set-identification; Sign restrictions; SVAR; Directional differentiability; Unconventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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