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Model specification test with correlated but not cointegrated variables

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  • Gan, Li
  • Hsiao, Cheng
  • Xu, Shu

Abstract

Many macroeconomic and financial variables show highly persistent and correlated patterns but are not necessarily cointegrated. Recently, Sun et al. (2011) propose using a semiparametric varying coefficient approach to capture correlations between integrated but non cointegrated variables. Due to the complication arising from the integrated disturbance term and the semiparametric functional form, consistent estimation of such a semiparametric model requires stronger conditions than usually needed for consistent estimation for a linear (spurious) regression model, or a semiparametric varying coefficient model with a stationary disturbance. Therefore, it is important to develop a testing procedure to examine for a given data set, whether linear relationship holds or not, while allowing for the disturbance being an integrated process. In this paper we propose two test statistics for detecting linearity against semiparametric varying coefficient alternative specification. Monte Carlo simulations are used to examine the finite sample performances of the proposed tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Gan, Li & Hsiao, Cheng & Xu, Shu, 2014. "Model specification test with correlated but not cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 80-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:178:y:2014:i:p1:p:80-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.08.008
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    2. Ying Wang & Peter C. B. Phillips & Yundong Tu, 2024. "Limit Theory and Inference in Non-cointegrated Functional Coefficient Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2399, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Specification test; Spurious regression; Varying coefficient; Kernel estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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