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Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric models

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  • Li, Tong

Abstract

This paper proposes a formal model selection test for choosing between two competing structural econometric models. The procedure is based on a novel lack-of-fit criterion, namely, the simulated mean squared error of predictions (SMSEP), taking into account the complexity of structural econometric models. It is asymptotically valid for any fixed number of simulations, and allows for any estimator which has a asymptotic normality or is n[alpha]-consistent for [alpha]>1/2. The test is bi-directional and applicable to non-nested models which are both possibly misspecified. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived. The proposed test is general, regardless of whether the optimization criteria for estimation of competing models are the same as the SMSEP criterion used for model selection. A Monte Carlo study demonstrates good power and size properties of the test. An empirical application using timber auction data from Oregon illustrates the usefulness and generality of the proposed testing procedure.

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  • Li, Tong, 2009. "Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 114-123, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:148:y:2009:i:2:p:114-123
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    Cited by:

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    2. Francis X. Diebold, 2015. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-1, January.
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    4. Xiaoxia Shi, 2015. "A nondegenerate Vuong test," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(1), pages 85-121, March.
    5. Francesco Bravo, 2022. "Misspecified semiparametric model selection with weakly dependent observations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 558-586, July.
    6. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Optimal Estimation Methodologies for Panel Data Regression Models," Papers 2311.03471, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model selection Non-nested structural models Simulated mean squared error of predictions;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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