Modified SEIB-DGVM enables simulation of masting in a temperate forest

Masting, the periodical mass production of seeds, affects forest ecosystems and food web dynamics. However, masting is not included in process-based models of forest dynamics which makes it difficult to predict changes in masting characteristics owing to climate change. We developed a masting model using the Spatially Explicit Individual Based-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model and validated it in a temperate forest containing Quercus crispula. Four models were devised using combinations of three major masting theories: resource budget, pollen limitation, and weather pattern hypotheses. The models simulated masting by modifying the reproduction of a novel plant functional type by parameterising the resource allocation to masting, the threshold limit for flowering, and the cost of acorn production. The results indicate that masting affected tree mortality; when trees allocated too many resources to masting and the threshold limit for flowering was low, tree mortality of the masting group increased. The model based on the resource budget and pollen limitation hypotheses corresponded most closely to observations, particularly under parameter combinations involving low resource allocation to masting and cost of acorn production. The models can be adapted to other species and for global applications, such as simulating the effects of climate change on masting and mitigating negative impacts on forest ecosystems and human–wildlife interactions.