IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v477y2023ics0304380023000030.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Water quality modeling of a eutrophic drinking water source: Impact of future climate on Cyanobacterial blooms

Author

Listed:
  • Elhabashy, Ahmed
  • Li, Jing
  • Sokolova, Ekaterina

Abstract

Cyanobacterial blooms are becoming more frequent in freshwater sources, causing concern throughout the world. Cyanobacterial blooms affect human health and the entire environment. Numerical modeling is an effective tool for investigating aquatic systems. In this study, a 3D hydrodynamic and water quality (ecological) model was used to simulate eutrophication of a drinking water source, Lake Vomb, in Sweden under present and future scenarios. The hydrodynamic model was set-up in MIKE 3 FM software based on meteorological, hydrological, and water quality data. The hydrodynamic model performance was satisfactory in terms of the water temperature simulation, with root-mean-square-error (RMSE) ranging from 0.38 to 1.2 °C. In the ecological model, Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) was used as a proxy for Cyanobacteria, and the model proved acceptable in simulating the Chl-a concentrations, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.93 and 0.87 for calibration and validation respectively. The findings revealed that external nitrogen loading and internal phosphorus loading had significant impact on the nutrient concentrations in Lake Vomb. The findings also showed a correlation between Chl-a levels and total phosphorus levels in the lake. To simulate future water quality in the lake, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) for the year 2050 were used to make projections for changes in air temperature and precipitation. Under the projected future climate, the simulations showed a considerable rise in Cyanobacteria biomass independent of the changes in external nutrient loading. The model findings can assist water managers in planning mitigation strategies by identifying major nutrient sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Elhabashy, Ahmed & Li, Jing & Sokolova, Ekaterina, 2023. "Water quality modeling of a eutrophic drinking water source: Impact of future climate on Cyanobacterial blooms," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 477(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:477:y:2023:i:c:s0304380023000030
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110275
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380023000030
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110275?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & R. Iestyn Woolway & Christopher J. Merchant, 2020. "Correction to: Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 443-443, June.
    2. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & R. Iestyn Woolway & Christopher J. Merchant, 2020. "Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 427-442, June.
    3. Elliott, J.A. & Persson, I. & Thackeray, S.J. & Blenckner, T., 2007. "Phytoplankton modelling of Lake Erken, Sweden by linking the models PROBE and PROTECH," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 421-426.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacobs, Bas & van Voorn, George & van Heijster, Peter & Hengeveld, Geerten M., 2024. "Consequences of alternative stable states for short-term model-based control of cyanobacterial blooms," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 491(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weijia Wang & Kun Shi & Xiwen Wang & Yunlin Zhang & Boqiang Qin & Yibo Zhang & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2024. "The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Jian Zhou & Peter R. Leavitt & Kevin C. Rose & Xiwen Wang & Yibo Zhang & Kun Shi & Boqiang Qin, 2023. "Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Martin T. Dokulil & Elvira Eyto & Stephen C. Maberly & Linda May & Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2021. "Increasing maximum lake surface temperature under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Mariusz Ptak & Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Mariusz Sojka, 2024. "Seven Decades of Surface Temperature Changes in Central European Lakes: What Is Next?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Jørgensen, Sven Erik, 2010. "A review of recent developments in lake modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(4), pages 689-692.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:477:y:2023:i:c:s0304380023000030. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.