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Changing risk of arboviral emergence in Catalonia due to higher probability of autochthonous outbreaks

Author

Listed:
  • López, L.
  • Dommar, C.
  • San José, A.
  • Meyers, L.
  • Fox, S.
  • Castro, L.
  • Rodó, X.

Abstract

The lack of previous exposure to arbovirus and the ongoing geographical expansion of viable vector populations has fostered the implementation of preventive strategies in those areas more prone to disease importation. Catalonia receives a wealth of travelers from Southeast Asia, South America and the Caribbean and around 700 cases of imported arbovirosis (2012–2016, totaling dengue, chikungunya, and Zika), have been notified in primary care health centers, traveler advice public health services and main hospitals. With the large asymptomatic proportion of infections well-known for these diseases, the threat for autochthonous outbreaks increases in those areas that, for particular environmental and socio-demographic conditions, might be more susceptible. Operational early-warning systems are lacking in most places where these outbreaks pose a serious health treat.

Suggested Citation

  • López, L. & Dommar, C. & San José, A. & Meyers, L. & Fox, S. & Castro, L. & Rodó, X., 2023. "Changing risk of arboviral emergence in Catalonia due to higher probability of autochthonous outbreaks," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 477(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:477:y:2023:i:c:s0304380022003568
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miranda Chan & Michael A Johansson, 2012. "The Incubation Periods of Dengue Viruses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-7, November.
    2. Lamperti, Francesco, 2018. "An information theoretic criterion for empirical validation of simulation models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 83-106.
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