IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v359y2017icp406-414.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A metapopulation approach to predict species range shifts under different climate change and landscape connectivity scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Mestre, Frederico
  • Risk, Benjamin B.
  • Mira, António
  • Beja, Pedro
  • Pita, Ricardo

Abstract

Forecasting future species distributions under climate change scenarios using Ecological Niche Models (ENM) is common practice. Typically, these projections do not account for landscape connectivity and species dispersal abilities. When they do account for these factors, they are based on either rather simplistic or overly complex and data-hungry approaches. Here we apply a new approach for predicting species range shifts under different climate change and landscape connectivity scenarios that balances data requirements and output quality. The approach builds on the metapopulation concept to produce a dispersal model based on repeated simulations of stochastic extinction-colonization dynamics across multiple landscapes of variable connectivity. The model is then combined with an ENM to produce more realistic predictions of species range shifts under environmental change. Using the near-threatened Cabrera vole (Microtus cabrerae) as a model species and considering two contrasting climate change scenarios (B2 and A1b) and three scenarios of increasing landscape connectivity, we confirmed that model predictions based solely on ENM overestimated future range sizes (2050 and 2080) in relation to predictions incorporating both future climates and landscape connectivity constraints. This supports the idea that landscape change critically affects species range shifts in addition to climate change, and that models disregarding landscape connectivity tend to produce overly optimistic predictions, particularly for species with low dispersal abilities. We suggest that our empirically-based simulation modelling approach provides a useful framework to improve range shift predictions for a broad range of species, which is essential for the conservation planning of metapopulations under climate and landscape change.

Suggested Citation

  • Mestre, Frederico & Risk, Benjamin B. & Mira, António & Beja, Pedro & Pita, Ricardo, 2017. "A metapopulation approach to predict species range shifts under different climate change and landscape connectivity scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 406-414.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:359:y:2017:i:c:p:406-414
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.06.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380016307669
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.06.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mestre, Frederico & Pita, Ricardo & Paupério, Joana & Martins, Filipa M.S. & Alves, Paulo Célio & Mira, António & Beja, Pedro, 2015. "Combining distribution modelling and non-invasive genetics to improve range shift forecasting," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 297(C), pages 171-179.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabritius, Henna & Knegt, Henrik de & Ovaskainen, Otso, 2021. "Effects of a mobile disturbance pattern on dynamic patch networks and metapopulation persistence," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 460(C).
    2. Szewczyk, Tim M. & Lee, Tom & Ducey, Mark J. & Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E. & Bibaud, Hayley & Allen, Jenica M., 2019. "Local management in a regional context: Simulations with process-based species distribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 413(C).
    3. Oliver Schöttker & Frank Wätzold, 2022. "Climate Change and the Cost-Effective Governance Mode for Biodiversity Conservation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(2), pages 409-436, June.
    4. Jing, Zhaorui & Wang, Jinman & Tang, Qian & Liu, Biao & Niu, Hebin, 2021. "Evolution of land use in coal-based cities based on the ecological niche theory: A case study in Shuozhou City, China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Mestre, F. & Silva, B., 2023. "lconnect R package: A versatile tool for evaluating landscape connectivity and prioritizing habitat patches in conservation research," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.

      Corrections

      All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:359:y:2017:i:c:p:406-414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

      If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

      If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

      If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

      For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

      Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

      IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.