IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v241y2012icp42-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Looking for the future in the past: Long-term change in socioecological systems

Author

Listed:
  • Barton, C. Michael
  • Ullah, Isaac I.T.
  • Bergin, Sean M.
  • Mitasova, Helena
  • Sarjoughian, Hessam

Abstract

The archaeological record has been described as a key to the long-term consequences of human action that can help guide our decisions today. Yet the sparse and incomplete nature of this record often makes it impossible to inferentially reconstruct past societies in sufficient detail for them to serve as more than very general cautionary tales of coupled socio-ecological systems. However, when formal and computational modeling is used to experimentally simulate human socioecological dynamics, the empirical archaeological record can be used to validate and improve dynamic models of long term change. In this way, knowledge generated by archaeology can play a unique and valuable role in developing the tools to make more informed decisions that will shape our future. The Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics project offers an example of using the past to develop and test computational models of interactions between land-use and landscape evolution that ultimately may help guide decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Barton, C. Michael & Ullah, Isaac I.T. & Bergin, Sean M. & Mitasova, Helena & Sarjoughian, Hessam, 2012. "Looking for the future in the past: Long-term change in socioecological systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 42-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:241:y:2012:i:c:p:42-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380012000786
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lilian N. Alessa & Melinda Laituri & C. Michael Barton, 2006. "An "All Hands" Call to the Social Science Community: Establishing a Community Framework for Complexity Modeling Using Agent Based Models and Cyberinfrastructure," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(4), pages 1-6.
    2. Marco A. Janssen & Lilian N. Alessa & C. Michael Barton & Sean Bergin & Allen Lee, 2008. "Towards a Community Framework for Agent-Based Modelling," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(2), pages 1-6.
    3. Bhatt, B. P. & Sachan, M. S., 2004. "Firewood consumption pattern of different tribal communities in Northeast India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-6, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sikk, Kaarel & Caruso, Geoffrey, 2024. "Framing settlement systems as spatial adaptive systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 490(C).
    2. Michael Yearworth & Sarah E. Cornell, 2016. "Contested Modelling: a Critical Examination of Expert Modelling in Sustainability," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 45-63, January.
    3. Charlotte Till & Jamie Haverkamp & Devin White & Budhendra Bhaduri, 2018. "Understanding climate-induced migration through computational modeling: A critical overview with guidance for future efforts," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 15(4), pages 415-435, October.
    4. Gerrit Günther & Thomas Clemen & Rainer Duttmann & Brigitta Schütt & Daniel Knitter, 2021. "Of Animal Husbandry and Food Production—A First Step towards a Modular Agent-Based Modelling Platform for Socio-Ecological Dynamics," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, December.
    5. C. Michael Barton & Isaac Ullah & Arjun Heimsath, 2015. "How to Make a Barranco: Modeling Erosion and Land-Use in Mediterranean Landscapes," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-29, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco A. Janssen & Lilian N. Alessa & C. Michael Barton & Sean Bergin & Allen Lee, 2008. "Towards a Community Framework for Agent-Based Modelling," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(2), pages 1-6.
    2. Moritz, Mark & Hamilton, Ian M. & Yoak, Andrew J. & Scholte, Paul & Cronley, Jeff & Maddock, Paul & Pi, Hongyang, 2015. "Simple movement rules result in ideal free distribution of mobile pastoralists," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 305(C), pages 54-63.
    3. Johnson, Nathan G. & Bryden, Kenneth M., 2012. "Energy supply and use in a rural West African village," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 283-292.
    4. J. Gareth Polhill & Dawn C. Parker & Daniel Brown & Volker Grimm, 2008. "Using the ODD Protocol for Describing Three Agent-Based Social Simulation Models of Land-Use Change," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(2), pages 1-3.
    5. Muhammad Irfan & Michael P. Cameron & Gazi Hassan, 2017. "Household Energy Elasticities in Pakistan: An Application of the LA-AIDS Model on Pooled Household Data," Working Papers in Economics 17/11, University of Waikato.
    6. Jack Gregory & David I. Stern, 2012. "Fuel Choices in Rural Maharashtra," CCEP Working Papers 1207, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Irfan, Muhammad & Cameron, Michael P. & Hassan, Gazi, 2018. "Household energy elasticities and policy implications for Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 633-642.
    8. J. Gareth Polhill & Bruce Edmonds, 2007. "Open Access for Social Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(3), pages 1-10.
    9. Pohekar, S.D. & Kumar, Dinesh & Ramachandran, M., 2005. "Dissemination of cooking energy alternatives in India--a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 379-393, August.
    10. Cai, Jing & Jiang, Zhigang, 2010. "Energy consumption patterns by local residents in four nature reserves in the subtropical broadleaved forest zone of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 828-834, February.
    11. I. Sá e Silva & L. Marangon & N. Hanazaki & U. Albuquerque, 2009. "Use and knowledge of fuelwood in three rural caatinga (dryland) communities in NE Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 833-851, August.
    12. Muhumuza, Ronald & Zacharopoulos, Aggelos & Mondol, Jayanta Deb & Smyth, Mervyn & Pugsley, Adrian, 2018. "Energy consumption levels and technical approaches for supporting development of alternative energy technologies for rural sectors of developing countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 90-102.
    13. Biswas, Shreya & Das, Upasak, 2022. "Adding fuel to human capital: Exploring the educational effects of cooking fuel choice from rural India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    14. Bhatt, B.P & Tomar, J.M.S & Bujarbaruah, K.M, 2004. "Characteristics of some firewood trees and shrubs of the North Eastern Himalayan region, India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1401-1405.
    15. Bhaskar Ch. Joshi & Ranbeer S. Rawal & K. Chandra Sekar & Ashish Tewari, 2020. "Assessment of fuelwood resource preference in representative watershed of west Himalaya, India: conservation and management implications," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1617-1632, February.
    16. Fábio Neves & Pedro Campos & Sandra Silva, 2019. "Innovation and Employment: An Agent-Based Approach," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 22(1), pages 1-8.
    17. Arnob Bormudoi & Masahiko Nagai, 2016. "A remote-sensing-based vegetative technique for flood hazard mitigation of Jiadhal basin, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 411-423, August.
    18. Alpy Sharma & Sanjay Kr. Uniyal & Daizy Rani Batish & Harminder P. Singh, 2023. "Utilization of fuelwood species by the Bhangalis community of western Himalaya, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3577-3599, April.
    19. You, Jing & Kontoleon, Andreas & Wang, Sangui, 2015. "Identifying a Sustainable Pathway to Household Multi-dimensional Poverty Reduction in Rural China," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211865, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Malik, Zubair A. & Bhat, Jahangeer A. & Bhatt, A.B., 2014. "Forest resource use pattern in Kedarnath wildlife sanctuary and its fringe areas (a case study from Western Himalaya, India)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 138-145.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:241:y:2012:i:c:p:42-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.