Carbon-based balanced trophic structure and flows in the offshore Lake Ontario food web before (1987–1991) and after (2001–2005) invasion-induced ecosystem change

Replicate mass-balanced solutions to Ecopath models describing carbon-based trophic structures and flows were developed for the Lake Ontario offshore food web before and after invasion-induced disruption. The food webs link two pathways of energy and matter flow: the grazing chain (phytoplankton–zooplankton-fish) and the microbial loop (bacteria–protozoans) and include 19 species-groups and three detrital groups. Mass-balance was achieved by using constrained optimization techniques to randomly vary initial estimates of biomass and diet composition. After the invasion, production declined for all trophic levels and species-groups except Chinook salmon. The trophic level (TL) increased for smelt, adult sculpin, adult alewife and Chinook salmon. Changes to ecotrophic efficiencies indicate a reduction in phytoplankton grazing, increased predation pressure on Mysis, adult smelt and alewife and decreased predation pressure on protozoans. Specific resource to consumer TTE changed; increasing for protozoans (8.0–11.5%), Mysis (0.6–1.0%), and Chinook salmon (1.0–2.3%) and other salmonines (0.4–0.5%) and decreasing for zooplankton (20.2–15.1%), prey-fish (9.7–8.8%), and benthos (1.7–0.6%). Direct trophic influences of recent invasive species were low. The synchrony of the decline in PP and species-group production indicates strong bottom-up influence. Mass balance required an increase of two to threefold in lower trophic level biomass and production, confirming a previously observed paradoxical deficit in lower trophic level production. Analysis of food web changes suggest hypotheses that may apply to other similar large pelagic systems including, (1) as pelagic primary productivity declines, overgrazing of zooplankton results in an increase in protozoan production and a loss of trophic transfer efficiency, (2) habitat and food web changes increased Mysis predation on Diporeia and contributed to their recent decline, and (3) production of Chinook salmon, the primary piscivore, was uncoupled from pelagic production processes. This study demonstrates the value of food web models to better understand the impact of invasive species and to develop novel hypotheses concerning trophic influences.