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Future distribution modelling: A stitch in time is not enough

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  • Stankowski, Philippe A.
  • Parker, William H.

Abstract

The last two decades have seen an increasing number of studies assessing the impact of climate change upon biodiversity. A central assumption underpinning research into the potential future habitat of terrestrial biota is that species are presently in equilibrium with their environments and that quantitative climate models adequately represent the distribution of species. Recently, many alarming predictions have emerged concerning the extinction and redistribution of species. Here, we show that even large-scale models of the climatic niche dimensions of species are temporally variable. Distributional models were developed for Salix (willow) species occurring in the province of Ontario, Canada, using three historical climate data sets. Although historical data very accurately represented the distributions of willows, the inherent variability within the models of species based on different periods greatly influenced the direction and magnitude of projected distributional change. We expose a fundamental uncertainty with respect to predicting the responses of species to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Stankowski, Philippe A. & Parker, William H., 2011. "Future distribution modelling: A stitch in time is not enough," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 567-572.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:222:y:2011:i:3:p:567-572
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.10.018
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    1. A. Townsend Peterson & Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta & Jeremy Bartley & Victor Sánchez-Cordero & Jorge Soberón & Robert H. Buddemeier & David R. B. Stockwell, 2002. "Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6881), pages 626-629, April.
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    3. John Harte & Annette Ostling & Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig, 2004. "Climate change and extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    4. Stankowski, Philippe A. & Parker, William H., 2010. "Species distribution modelling: Does one size fit all? A phytogeographic analysis of Salix in Ontario," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(13), pages 1655-1664.
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