IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v221y2010i5p729-737.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A pattern-oriented modelling approach to simulating populations of grey partridge

Author

Listed:
  • Topping, Christopher John
  • Høye, Toke Thomas
  • Odderskær, Peter
  • Aebischer, Nicholas J.

Abstract

A number of wildlife species including the grey partridge (Perdix perdix) have shown dramatic post-war population declines. Multiple drivers have been proposed as reasons for the declines, for example agrochemical use and intensification of agricultural practices, climate, predation, and changes in landscape structure. These drivers may interact in non-linear ways and are inherently spatio-temporal in nature. Therefore models used to investigate mechanisms should be spatio-temporal, of proper scale, and have a high degree of biological realism. Here we describe the development and testing of an agent-based model (ABM) of grey partridge using a well documented pre-decline historical data set in conjunction with a pattern-oriented modelling (POM) approach. Model development was an iterative process of defining performance criteria, testing model behaviour, and reformulating as necessary to emulate system properties whilst ensuring that internal mechanisms were biologically realistic. The model was documented using ODdox, a new protocol for describing large agent-based models. Parameter fitting in the model was achieved to within ±2% accuracy for 15 out of 17 field data patterns used, and within 5% for the remaining two. Tests of interactions between input parameters showed that 62% of parameter pairs tested had significant interactions underlining the complex nature of the model structure. Sensitivity analysis identified chick mortality as being the most sensitive factor, followed by adult losses to hunting and adult overwinter mortality, agreeing in general with previous partridge models. However, the ABM used here could separate individual drivers, providing a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms behind population regulation, and allowing factors to be compared directly. The ABM used is rich in output signals allowing detailed testing and refinement of the model. This approach is particularly suited to systems such as the partridge system where data for comparison to model outputs is readily available. Despite the accurate fit between historical data and model output, making use of the predictive power of the approach the model requires further calibration and testing under modern field conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Topping, Christopher John & Høye, Toke Thomas & Odderskær, Peter & Aebischer, Nicholas J., 2010. "A pattern-oriented modelling approach to simulating populations of grey partridge," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(5), pages 729-737.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:5:p:729-737
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.11.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009007509
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.11.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hankin, Robin K. S., 2005. "Introducing BACCO, an R Bundle for Bayesian Analysis of Computer Code Output," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 14(i16).
    2. Topping, Chris J. & Høye, Toke T. & Olesen, Carsten Riis, 2010. "Opening the black box—Development, testing and documentation of a mechanistically rich agent-based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 245-255.
    3. Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie & Revilla, Eloy & Wiegand, Thorsten & Grimm, Volker, 2007. "Patterns for parameters in simulation models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 204(3), pages 553-556.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Weimin & Cornelisen, Chris & Knight, Ben & Gibbs, Mark, 2015. "A pattern-oriented model for assessing effects of weather and freshwater discharge on black coral (Antipathes fiordensis) distribution in a fjord," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 304(C), pages 59-68.
    2. McLane, Adam J. & Semeniuk, Christina & McDermid, Gregory J. & Marceau, Danielle J., 2011. "The role of agent-based models in wildlife ecology and management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1544-1556.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McLane, Adam J. & Semeniuk, Christina & McDermid, Gregory J. & Marceau, Danielle J., 2011. "The role of agent-based models in wildlife ecology and management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1544-1556.
    2. Perryman, Holly A. & Kaplan, Isaac C. & Blanchard, Julia L. & Fay, Gavin & Gaichas, Sarah K. & McGregor, Vidette L. & Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini & Porobic, Javier & Townsend, Howard & Fulton, Elizabeth, 2023. "Atlantis Ecosystem Model Summit 2022: Report from a workshop," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    3. Kleijnen, Jack P.C., 2009. "Kriging metamodeling in simulation: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(3), pages 707-716, February.
    4. Nicholas R. Magliocca, 2015. "Model-Based Synthesis of Locally Contingent Responses to Global Market Signals," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-35, September.
    5. Crouse, Kristin N. & Desai, Nisarg P. & Cassidy, Kira A. & Stahler, Erin E. & Lehman, Clarence L. & Wilson, Michael L., 2022. "Larger territories reduce mortality risk for chimpanzees, wolves, and agents: Multiple lines of evidence in a model validation framework," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 471(C).
    6. Garbuno-Inigo, A. & DiazDelaO, F.A. & Zuev, K.M., 2016. "Gaussian process hyper-parameter estimation using Parallel Asymptotically Independent Markov Sampling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 367-383.
    7. Vincenot, Christian Ernest & Giannino, Francesco & Rietkerk, Max & Moriya, Kazuyuki & Mazzoleni, Stefano, 2011. "Theoretical considerations on the combined use of System Dynamics and individual-based modeling in ecology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 210-218.
    8. Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly & Cochrane, Kevern & Fulton, Elizabeth A., 2017. "An Atlantis model of the southern Benguela upwelling system: Validation, sensitivity analysis and insights into ecosystem functioning," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 355(C), pages 49-63.
    9. Girard, Philippe & Parrott, Lael & Caron, Charles-André & Green, David M., 2015. "Effects of temperature and surface water availability on spatiotemporal dynamics of stream salamanders using pattern-oriented modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 296(C), pages 12-23.
    10. Topping, Christopher J. & Dalby, Lars & Valdez, Jose W., 2019. "Landscape-scale simulations as a tool in multi-criteria decision making to support agri-environment schemes," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    11. Jakoby, Oliver & Grimm, Volker & Frank, Karin, 2014. "Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 78-88.
    12. repec:jss:jstsof:46:i08 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Pais, Miguel Pessanha & Cabral, Henrique N., 2017. "Fish behaviour effects on the accuracy and precision of underwater visual census surveys. A virtual ecologist approach using an individual-based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 346(C), pages 58-69.
    14. Bonnell, Tyler R. & Sengupta, Raja R. & Chapman, Colin A. & Goldberg, Tony L., 2010. "An agent-based model of red colobus resources and disease dynamics implicates key resource sites as hot spots of disease transmission," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(20), pages 2491-2500.
    15. Zhu, Chuanqi & Tian, Wei & Yin, Baoquan & Li, Zhanyong & Shi, Jiaxin, 2020. "Uncertainty calibration of building energy models by combining approximate Bayesian computation and machine learning algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    16. Olaru, Doina & Purchase, Sharon, 2014. "Rethinking validation: Efficient search of the space of parameters for an agent-based model," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 60-68.
    17. Latombe, Guillaume & Parrott, Lael & Fortin, Daniel, 2011. "Levels of emergence in individual based models: Coping with scarcity of data and pattern redundancy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(9), pages 1557-1568.
    18. Piou, Cyril & Berger, Uta & Grimm, Volker, 2009. "Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(17), pages 1957-1967.
    19. Haythorne, Sean & Skabar, Andrew, 2013. "An improved pattern-guided evolution approach for the development of adaptive individual-based ecological models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 72-82.
    20. Turley, Marianne C. & Ford, E. David, 2009. "Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(17), pages 1968-1983.
    21. Heymans, Johanna Jacomina & Coll, Marta & Link, Jason S. & Mackinson, Steven & Steenbeek, Jeroen & Walters, Carl & Christensen, Villy, 2016. "Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 331(C), pages 173-184.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:5:p:729-737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.